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Mt. Rose ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Mt. Rose Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 20, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 12

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 10:01 PM•Weather at base: 2,499m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 20

Mt. Rose is projected to open November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 24 Mar–28 Mar.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February74cm avg · last season 24.9
  2. #2January72cm avg
  3. #3March61cm avg · last season 9.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 24.9
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 12.4
  3. #3 24 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 9.8

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,060m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 10:01 PM

0cm
24h
1cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
1
Now12
0
T13
—
W14
—
T15
—
F16
—
S17
—
S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
-0° / -6°
13 Tue
2° / -8°
14 Wed
8° / -2°
15 Thu
8° / 1°
16 Fri
10° / 3°
17 Sat
11° / 4°
18 Sun
9° / 3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions☀️☁️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️
clearcloudymostly clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclear
Summit3,060 mModeled
Temp°C-3°-1°-4°-6°1°-5°1°7°0°3°8°3°4°10°4°6°11°5°6°9°4°
Feels like°C-8°-7°-9°-11°-3°-9°-3°4°-3°-2°3°-2°0°5°0°2°6°2°2°4°1°
Snowcm·0.21.1··················
Precipmm·0.31.5··················
Windkm/h918131077565141612111210614311166
Mid-mountain2,780 mModeled
Temp°C-1°1°-2°-4°3°-3°3°9°2°5°10°4°6°11°6°8°12°7°8°10°6°
Feels like°C-6°-5°-7°-9°-1°-7°-1°6°-1°0°5°0°2°7°2°4°8°4°4°6°3°
Snowcm·0.11.1··················
Precipmm·0.31.5··················
Windkm/h918131077565141612111210614311166
Base2,499 mModeled
Temp°C1°3°0°-2°5°-1°5°11°4°7°11°6°8°13°8°10°14°9°10°12°8°
Feels like°C-4°-3°-5°-7°1°-5°1°8°1°2°7°2°4°9°4°6°10°6°6°8°5°
Snowcm··1.1··················
Precipmm·0.31.5··················
Windkm/h918131077565141612111210614311166
Humidity%665478653672492859422953513154362443463549
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt. Rose, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt. Rose (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mt. Rose El Niño rank & forecast

Mt. Rose ranks #68 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +10% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#68 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +10% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt. Rose averaged +10% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Mt. Rose sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +28%, '15-16 -2%, '23-24 +5%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +28%'15-16 −2%'23-24 +5%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mt. Rose, ERA5 season snowfall median was 375 cm (148 in), about 11% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

375cm

10 El Niño winters · 11% above median

All-season median

337cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10375cm328cm – 428cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12335cm263cm – 443cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8322cm285cm – 373cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Mt. Rose

How much snow is Mt. Rose getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Mt. Rose over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Mt. Rose?
The full 14-day forecast for Mt. Rose — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Mt. Rose?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.