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Mt Shasta Ski Park ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Mt Shasta Ski Park Snow Forecast

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: February, March, January · 30-yr snow record

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 5, 6:03 PM•Weather at base: 1,682m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
Status unconfirmed

Mt Shasta Ski Park is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprMay

Best months to book

  1. #1February128cm avg
  2. #2March103cm avg
  3. #3January126cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

No new snow has been recorded in the past week.

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Forecast

Dry for the next 7 days.

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Historic

This season-to-date shows a stark contrast to the 5-year average, which typically records a significant amount of snow.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Mon, Oct 5, 06:03 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

2,297m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 5, 2026 at 6:03 PM

0cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
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Now5
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T6
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W7
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T8
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F9
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S10
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S11
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

5 Mon
23° / 7°
6 Tue
24° / 7°
7 Wed
24° / 8°
8 Thu
24° / 8°
9 Fri
22° / 6°
10 Sat
5° / -3°
11 Sun
5° / -5°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight12 Mon13 Tue14 Wed15 Thu16 Fri17 Sat18 Sun
Conditions⛅☀️⛅☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅🌤️🌤️☀️☀️☀️
some cloudsclearsome cloudsclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudsmostly clearmostly clearclearclearclear
Summit2,297 mModeled
Temp°C12°23°11°12°23°11°13°24°11°14°23°11°11°21°9°1°4°1°-1°4°-2°
Feels like°C9°19°7°8°20°7°9°20°7°10°20°7°7°18°4°-4°-2°-4°-5°0°-7°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h56766847638566111521166911
Mid-mountain1,990 mModeled
Temp°C14°25°13°14°25°13°15°26°13°16°25°13°13°23°11°3°6°3°1°6°0°
Feels like°C11°22°9°11°22°9°12°22°9°12°22°9°10°20°7°-2°0°-2°-3°2°-5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h56766847638566111521166911
Base1,682 mModeled
Temp°C16°27°15°16°27°15°17°28°15°18°27°15°15°25°13°5°8°5°3°8°2°
Feels like°C13°24°12°13°24°11°14°24°12°14°24°12°12°22°9°0°2°0°0°4°-2°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h56766847638566111521166911
Humidity%331535401438321032231126361436642459592858
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt Shasta Ski Park, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt Shasta Ski Park (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mt Shasta Ski Park El Niño rank & forecast

Mt Shasta Ski Park ranks #16 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +22% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#16 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +22% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Shasta Ski Park averaged +22% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Mt Shasta Ski Park sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +30%, '15-16 -19%, '23-24 +55%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +30%'15-16 −19%'23-24 +55%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mt Shasta Ski Park, ERA5 season snowfall median was 584 cm (230 in), about 5% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

584cm

10 El Niño winters · 5% above median

All-season median

554cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10584cm510cm – 760cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12554cm502cm – 666cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8505cm349cm – 688cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Mt Shasta Ski Park

How much snow is Mt Shasta Ski Park getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Mt Shasta Ski Park over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Mt Shasta Ski Park?
The full 14-day forecast for Mt Shasta Ski Park — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Mt Shasta Ski Park?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.