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Myrkdalen ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Europe

Myrkdalen Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: March, February, January · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed April 12

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 20

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

1cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 20, 8:03 PM•Weather at base: 450m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Closed for the season

Myrkdalen is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, February, January. Best weeks: 23 Mar–29 Mar, 30 Mar–5 Apr, 6 Apr–12 Apr.NovDec3Jan2Feb1MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 12 Apr

March

#1 to book

108cm avg · scored 60.9

February

#2 to book

124cm avg

January

#3 to book

138cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #123 Mar – 29 Marscored 59.3
  2. #230 Mar – 5 Aprscored 57
  3. #36 Apr – 12 Aprscored 35.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,060m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-FrMet Norway

Updated Sep 20, 2026 at 8:03 PM

1cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
1
Prev10d
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Now20
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M21
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T22
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W23
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T24
—
F25
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S26
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

20 Sun
4° / 2°
21 Mon
6° / 2°
22 Tue
9° / 3°
23 Wed
8° / 4°
24 Thu
9° / 3°
25 Fri
7° / 2°
26 Sat
7° / 3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight27 Sun28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌤️🌧️☁️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️
light raindrizzlelight rainlight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlemostly cleardrizzlecloudycloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzle
Summit1,060 mModeled
Temp°C4°4°3°3°6°3°5°8°5°7°7°5°3°7°4°6°7°4°4°7°4°
Feels like°C0°0°-1°-1°3°0°3°6°3°6°6°3°1°5°2°3°4°1°1°3°1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm10.85.117.70.90.92.1···1.27.29.60.9·5.7·1.23.00.60.61.5
Windkm/h151517119766533556581188128
Mid-mountain755 mModeled
Temp°C6°6°5°5°8°5°7°10°7°9°9°7°5°9°6°8°9°6°6°9°6°
Feels like°C2°3°1°2°5°2°5°8°6°8°9°6°3°7°4°6°6°3°3°6°4°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm10.85.117.70.90.92.1···1.27.29.60.9·5.7·1.23.00.60.61.5
Windkm/h151517119766533556581188128
Base450 mModeled
Temp°C8°8°7°7°10°7°9°12°9°11°11°9°7°11°8°10°11°8°8°11°8°
Feels like°C5°5°4°4°7°5°8°11°8°11°11°8°6°10°6°8°9°6°6°8°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm10.85.117.70.90.92.1···1.27.29.60.9·5.7·1.23.00.60.61.5
Windkm/h151517119766533556581188128
Humidity%969497977893847689979897987894938294958392
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Myrkdalen, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Myrkdalen (scandinavia), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Scandinavia region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Myrkdalen El Niño rank & forecast

Myrkdalen ranks #242 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#242 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Myrkdalen averaged -2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -11%, '15-16 +2%, '23-24 +4%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −11%'15-16 +2%'23-24 +4%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Myrkdalen, ERA5 season snowfall median was 745 cm (293 in), about 1% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

745cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% below median

All-season median

749cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10745cm623cm – 942cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12743cm606cm – 797cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8750cm574cm – 765cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Myrkdalen

How much snow is Myrkdalen getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Myrkdalen over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Myrkdalen?
The full 14-day forecast for Myrkdalen — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Myrkdalen?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.