Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Superb

↗improving

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

37cm

7-Day Forecast

11cm

Snow Depth

199cm

Open-Meteo model

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 9:04 PM•Weather at base: 2,579m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Superb

↑improving

Exceptional season - 652cm already this season!

Penitentes is experiencing mainly clear conditions with a solid snow depth of 199cm. The resort has seen 37cm of new snow in the past week, which is contributing to a robust base as we progress through the season.

AI-generated summary

✓

Depth

199cm depth — excellent coverage.

—

Recent

In the last 24 hours, there has been 1cm of fresh snow.

✓

Forecast

11cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

Season-to-date, Penitentes is at 214% of the 5-year average, which is 305cm.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 09:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

3,194m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 9:04 PM

37cm

24h

11cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

—

Now22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

37cm

24h

11cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

37cm

Previous10 Days

—

TODAYSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue 5° / -4°			23 Wed 5° / 1°			24 Thu 5° / 2°			25 Fri 6° / 2°			26 Sat 7° / 1°			27 Sun 7° / -2°			28 Mon 4° / -5°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon
Conditions	☀️	☀️	🌤️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	☁️	🌤️	🌤️	🌤️	☀️	⛅	☀️	⛅	❄️	⛅	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☀️
	clear	clear	mostly clear	snow	light snow	light snow	light snow	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	mostly clear	mostly clear	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	clear	some clouds	snow	some clouds	snow	heavy snow	snow	heavy snow	heavy snow	heavy snow	clear
Summit3,194 mModeled
Temp°C	-2°	4°	0°	2°	4°	2°	3°	5°	3°	3°	5°	4°	2°	7°	3°	1°	7°	1°	4°	2°	-1°	-3°	-1°	-1°	1°	-0°	-3°	-12°
Feels like°C	-6°	3°	-4°	-1°	2°	-1°	-1°	1°	0°	-1°	2°	0°	-1°	6°	0°	-3°	6°	-2°	0°	0°	-4°	-7°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-6°	-15°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	2	0.6	1.8	0.3	·	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.7	2.1	1.4	5.6	23.5	3.5	32.2	40.7	17.1	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	2.9	0.9	2.8	0.4	·	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.0	3.0	2.0	8.0	33.4	4.6	46.0	58.2	24.4	·
Windkm/h	4	3	4	3	4	3	6	6	4	5	6	5	1	3	2	2	2	4	1	2	3	4	3	5	3	4	4	7
Mid-mountain2,887 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	6°	2°	4°	6°	4°	5°	7°	5°	5°	7°	6°	4°	9°	5°	3°	9°	3°	5°	4°	1°	-1°	1°	0°	3°	2°	-1°	-10°
Feels like°C	-3°	5°	-1°	1°	4°	1°	1°	4°	2°	1°	4°	2°	1°	8°	2°	0°	8°	0°	3°	2°	-2°	-4°	-2°	-2°	1°	-1°	-4°	-13°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	2	0.6	1.8	0.3	·	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.7	2.1	1.4	5.6	23.5	3.5	32.2	40.7	17.1	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	2.9	0.9	2.8	0.4	·	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.0	3.0	2.0	8.0	33.4	4.6	46.0	58.2	24.4	·
Windkm/h	4	3	4	3	4	3	6	6	4	5	6	5	1	3	2	2	2	4	1	2	3	4	3	5	3	4	4	7
Base2,579 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	8°	4°	6°	8°	6°	7°	9°	7°	7°	9°	8°	6°	11°	7°	5°	11°	5°	7°	6°	3°	1°	3°	3°	5°	4°	1°	-8°
Feels like°C	-1°	8°	1°	4°	6°	4°	3°	6°	4°	3°	6°	4°	3°	10°	4°	2°	10°	2°	5°	4°	0°	-2°	0°	0°	3°	1°	-2°	-11°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	2	0.6	1.8	0.3	·	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.7	2.1	1.4	5.6	23.5	3.5	32.2	40.7	17.1	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	2.9	0.9	2.8	0.4	·	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.0	3.0	2.0	8.0	33.4	4.6	46.0	58.2	24.4	·
Windkm/h	4	3	4	3	4	3	6	6	4	5	6	5	1	3	2	2	2	4	1	2	3	4	3	5	3	4	4	7
Humidity%	66	64	64	84	63	72	47	44	48	42	45	41	36	40	37	34	44	43	47	71	60	57	90	84	88	83	73	37
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,000	2,760	2,525	2,015	1,555	2,100	2,810
Sunhours																						9.6	9	9.6	8.5	9	9.1	12.1

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Penitentes, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Penitentes (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Penitentes El Niño rank & forecast

Penitentes ranks #1 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +85% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#1 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +85% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Penitentes averaged +85% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Penitentes sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +82%, '15-16 +36%, '23-24 +135%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +82%'15-16 +36%'23-24 +135%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+85%

Measured to date

+145%

Season total

652 cm

Vs predicted

+60%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Penitentes, ERA5 season snowfall median was 493 cm (194 in), about 72% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

493cm

6 El Niño winters · 72% above median

All-season median

287cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	493cm	404cm – 601cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	211cm	141cm – 274cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	254cm	231cm – 365cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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