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Porters ski resort
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Oceania

Porters Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: July, August, June · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed September 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

3cm

Past 48 Hours

3cm

Past 10 Days

11cm

7-Day Forecast

22cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

19

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

1

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 2:03 AM•Weather at base: 1,302m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
Closed for the season

Porters is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: July, August, June. Best weeks: 3 Jul–9 Jul, 10 Jul–16 Jul, 24 Jul–30 Jul.3Jun1Jul2AugSepOpens 26 JunCloses 20 Sep

July

#1 to book

36cm avg · scored 36.1

August

#2 to book

29cm avg · scored 27.7

June

#3 to book

29cm avg · scored 20.6

Best weeks to book

  1. #13 Jul – 9 Julscored 45
  2. #210 Jul – 16 Julscored 36.1
  3. #324 Jul – 30 Julscored 35

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,980m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 2:03 AM

11cm
24h
22cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
11
Prev10d
4
Now22
2
W23
—
T24
1
F25
0
S26
15
S27
—
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
2° / -7°
23 Wed
-4° / -9°
24 Thu
3° / -9°
25 Fri
3° / -8°
26 Sat
7° / -7°
27 Sun
1° / -11°
28 Mon
-3° / -13°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions❄️☀️☀️🌤️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️🌧️⛅🌤️⛅⛅🌧️❄️🌧️☀️☀️🌤️
snowclearclearmostly clearmostly clearclearclearclearclearcloudylight drizzlesome cloudsmostly clearsome cloudssome cloudsdrizzlesnowlight drizzleclearclearmostly clear
Summit1,980 mModeled
Temp°C-5°1°-4°-7°-4°-8°-4°2°-6°-4°1°-5°-1°6°-3°-2°-7°-5°-8°-3°-9°
Feels like°C-8°-4°-8°-11°-9°-11°-8°-2°-10°-7°-2°-9°-5°3°-7°-6°-13°-10°-12°-6°-12°
Snowcm1.70.14.20.10.21.1···10.80.3···6.56.28···
Precipmm2.40.16.00.20.31.6···1.41.80.4···9.38.911.5···
Windkm/h3157810256475598781711222
Mid-mountain1,641 mModeled
Temp°C-3°3°-2°-5°-2°-5°-2°4°-4°-1°3°-3°1°8°-1°0°-5°-3°-6°-1°-6°
Feels like°C-6°-1°-5°-9°-6°-9°-6°1°-8°-5°0°-7°-3°6°-5°-3°-10°-7°-9°-3°-10°
Snowcm1.70.14.10.10.21.1···10.5····5.16.27.8···
Precipmm2.40.16.00.20.31.6···1.41.80.4···9.38.911.5···
Windkm/h3157810256475598781711222
Base1,302 mModeled
Temp°C-1°5°0°-3°0°-3°0°6°-2°1°5°-1°3°10°1°3°-3°-1°-4°1°-4°
Feels like°C-3°1°-3°-7°-4°-6°-4°3°-5°-2°3°-4°0°8°-2°-1°-8°-5°-7°-1°-8°
Snowcm1.70.12.60.10.21.1···0.10.1····4.26.25···
Precipmm2.40.16.00.20.31.6···1.41.80.4···9.38.911.5···
Windkm/h3157810256475598781711222
Humidity%934986755782584276887394806391889291635874
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Porters, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Porters (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Porters El Niño rank & forecast

Porters ranks #201 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#201 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Porters averaged +1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -15%, '15-16 -7%, '23-24 +25%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −7%'23-24 +25%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+1%

Measured to date

+41%

Season total

152 cm

Vs predicted

+40%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Porters, ERA5 season snowfall median was 123 cm (48 in), about 8% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

123cm

6 El Niño winters · 8% below median

All-season median

133cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6123cm121cm – 130cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4137cm112cm – 183cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21145cm111cm – 169cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Porters

How much snow is Porters getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 22 cm (9 in) of snow at Porters over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Porters?
The full 14-day forecast for Porters — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Porters?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.