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Purgatory Resort ski resort
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Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Purgatory Resort Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: April, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed April 5

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 22, 9:04 PM•Weather at base: 2,743m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Closed for the season

Purgatory Resort is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, February, March. Best weeks: 29 Mar–4 Apr, 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar.NovDecJan2Feb3Mar1AprOpens 27 NovCloses 5 Apr

April

#1 to book

50cm avg · scored 36.6

February

#2 to book

51cm avg · scored 29.1

March

#3 to book

53cm avg · scored 17.3

Best weeks to book

  1. #129 Mar – 4 Aprscored 30.3
  2. #222 Feb – 28 Febscored 29.1
  3. #31 Mar – 7 Marscored 21.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,293m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 9:04 PM

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24h
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Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now22
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W23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
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M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
10° / 0°
23 Wed
10° / 2°
24 Thu
8° / 3°
25 Fri
11° / 1°
26 Sat
14° / -2°
27 Sun
14° / 1°
28 Mon
7° / 3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions🌤️🌧️☀️☁️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️🌧️☁️❄️☁️⛅🌤️⛅🌤️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️
mostly clearlight drizzleclearcloudylight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzlelight drizzlecloudysnowcloudysome cloudsmostly clearsome cloudsmostly clearlight drizzlecloudylight drizzledrizzlelight drizzle
Summit3,293 mModeled
Temp°C6°10°3°5°9°4°4°8°4°6°8°4°3°13°3°7°13°4°6°7°4°
Feels like°C3°7°0°3°7°2°2°6°2°4°6°2°1°11°0°4°9°1°3°4°2°
Snowcm·····0.1··0.3·0.8·········0.4
Precipmm0.42.10.50.22.04.30.52.25.20.26.50.5·0.6··0.6·2.34.45.8
Windkm/h81234444952323723123694
Mid-mountain3,018 mModeled
Temp°C8°11°5°7°10°5°6°10°6°8°10°6°5°15°5°8°14°6°7°8°6°
Feels like°C5°9°2°5°9°4°4°8°4°6°9°4°3°13°3°6°12°3°5°6°4°
Snowcm·····0.1··0.3·0.8·········0.4
Precipmm0.42.10.50.22.04.30.52.25.20.26.50.5·0.6··0.6·2.34.45.8
Windkm/h81234444952323723123694
Base2,743 mModeled
Temp°C10°12°6°9°10°8°8°10°8°9°13°7°8°17°6°10°17°7°9°10°7°
Feels like°C7°11°4°8°9°6°7°9°6°8°11°6°6°15°4°8°14°4°7°9°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.26.11.00.55.48.41.03.27.80.35.12.4·0.3····1.23.29.1
Windkm/h5641332743437944104475
Humidity%666784927498968498907997894087724475879186
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Purgatory Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Purgatory Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Purgatory Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Purgatory Resort ranks #194 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#194 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Purgatory Resort averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 +1%, '15-16 +13%, '23-24 -9%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +1%'15-16 +13%'23-24 −9%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Purgatory Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 384 cm (151 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

384cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% above median

All-season median

372cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10384cm341cm – 404cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12356cm311cm – 413cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8318cm267cm – 402cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Purgatory Resort

How much snow is Purgatory Resort getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Purgatory Resort over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Purgatory Resort?
The full 14-day forecast for Purgatory Resort — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Purgatory Resort?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.