Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Projected to open November 27, 2026

Best months to book: April, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Nov 27

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 12

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

15cm

Snow Depth

❄ Dense, settled

Updated: Oct 12, 9:02 PM•Weather at base: 2,680m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Nov 27

Purgatory Resort is projected to open November 27, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April50cm avg · last season 36.6
#2February51cm avg · last season 29.1
#3March53cm avg · last season 17.3

Best weeks to book

#1 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 30.3
#2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 29.1
#3 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 21.4

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,299m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:02 PM

0cm

24h

15cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now12

T13

W14

T15

—

F16

S17

S18

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

0cm

24h

15cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

0cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYOct 12

TueOct 13

WedOct 14

ThuOct 15

—

FriOct 16

SatOct 17

SunOct 18

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	12 Mon 5° / 1°			13 Tue 3° / -1°			14 Wed 1° / -9°			15 Thu 5° / -10°			16 Fri 6° / -10°			17 Sat 3° / -11°			18 Sun 6° / -4°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Mon	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun
Conditions	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	⛅	☀️	☀️	☁️	❄️	❄️	☁️	⛅	☁️	⛅	⛅	❄️	❄️	⛅	🌤️	🌤️
	light drizzle	light snow	light snow	snow	snow	heavy snow	snow	snow	snow	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	clear	clear	cloudy	snow	light snow	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	some clouds	some clouds	light snow	heavy snow	some clouds	mostly clear	mostly clear
Summit3,299 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	4°	2°	0°	2°	1°	1°	0°	-3°	-4°	4°	-7°	-7°	4°	-7°	-1°	2°	-5°	3°	5°	0°	0°	2°	3°	-2°	-4°	-4°	-2°
Feels like°C	-2°	0°	-2°	-3°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-6°	-8°	0°	-11°	-12°	1°	-11°	-5°	-1°	-8°	0°	3°	-3°	-3°	-1°	-1°	-7°	-7°	-8°	-6°
Snowcm	0.1	0.5	0.9	2.7	3	5.7	4.9	3.8	3.3	0.1	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1	0.7	0.3	·	1.6	·	·	2.2	9.5	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.7	3.5	4.1	4.1	5.4	9.0	7.0	5.4	4.5	0.1	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1.4	1.0	0.4	·	2.3	·	·	5.6	13.6	·	·	·
Windkm/h	14	18	12	9	9	9	6	8	5	6	9	6	10	7	6	3	4	4	4	2	2	6	11	12	22	7	5	14
Mid-mountain2,990 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	6°	4°	2°	4°	3°	3°	2°	-1°	-2°	6°	-5°	-5°	6°	-5°	1°	4°	-3°	5°	7°	2°	2°	4°	5°	0°	-2°	-2°	0°
Feels like°C	0°	2°	0°	-1°	1°	0°	0°	-1°	-3°	-6°	2°	-8°	-9°	4°	-8°	-2°	2°	-6°	2°	5°	0°	-0°	1°	2°	-4°	-5°	-6°	-4°
Snowcm	0.1	0.5	0.9	2.7	3	5.2	4.8	3.7	3.2	0.1	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1	0.7	0.3	·	1.6	·	·	1.5	7.3	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.7	3.5	4.1	4.1	5.4	9.0	7.0	5.4	4.5	0.1	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1.4	1.0	0.4	·	2.3	·	·	5.6	13.6	·	·	·
Windkm/h	14	18	12	9	9	9	6	8	5	6	9	6	10	7	6	3	4	4	4	2	2	6	11	12	22	7	5	14
Base2,680 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	8°	5°	5°	6°	5°	3°	3°	1°	1°	9°	-1°	1°	10°	0°	3°	4°	1°	6°	10°	3°	6°	7°	7°	3°	1°	3°	3°
Feels like°C	4°	6°	3°	2°	4°	3°	1°	0°	-1°	-3°	6°	-4°	-3°	7°	-4°	1°	1°	-2°	4°	7°	1°	3°	4°	4°	-1°	-2°	0°	-0°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	0.7	·	0.2	2.3	3.4	1.3	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.3	·	·	0.1	·	·	2.7	2.4	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.6	5.0	8.1	7.7	10.8	8.4	7.5	6.4	6.3	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	0.2	1.4	1.9	0.3	·	1.9	·	0.6	18.9	20.1	·	·	·
Windkm/h	8	9	6	6	8	5	5	7	3	4	6	5	8	10	8	4	6	4	4	7	3	9	10	10	13	6	9	9
Humidity%	94	87	100	97	90	99	94	84	94	80	58	84	79	46	82	78	83	93	84	69	93	75	74	84	87	69	56	64
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,450	3,450	3,250	1,950	2,150	3,000	2,850
Sunhours																						9.4	9	9	7	9.1	9.2	9.1

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Purgatory Resort, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Purgatory Resort (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Purgatory Resort El Niño rank & forecast

Purgatory Resort ranks #194 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#194 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Purgatory Resort averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 +1%, '15-16 +13%, '23-24 -9%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +1%'15-16 +13%'23-24 −9%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Purgatory Resort, ERA5 season snowfall median was 384 cm (151 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

384cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% above median

All-season median

372cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	384cm	341cm – 404cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	356cm	311cm – 413cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	318cm	267cm – 402cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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