Oceania
Solid · 2026 season average
Closed for the season · average of 20 verified open days
Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record
Scroll for happiness
Closed for the season — closed September 6
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
Sep 21
todayPast 24 Hours
0cm
Resort reportedPast 48 Hours
3cm
Past 10 Days
8cm
7-Day Forecast
12cm
Snow Depth
--
Powder Days
11
2026 season
Solid
2026 season average
Rainbow is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 37.6 across 20 verified open days.
August
#1 to book
15cm avg · scored 36.5
September
#2 to book
16cm avg · scored 40
Best weeks to book
Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 23 Aug – 5 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.
Unlock with ProHistorical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend
21 Mon 5° / -5° | 22 Tue 2° / -4° | 23 Wed -1° / -8° | 24 Thu 2° / -8° | 25 Fri 2° / -6° | 26 Sat 1° / -4° | 27 Sun 1° / -7° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 28 Mon | 29 Tue | 30 Wed | 1 Thu | 2 Fri | 3 Sat | 4 Sun | |
| Conditions | 🌤️ | 🌤️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | ☀️ | ☁️ | ❄️ | 🌤️ | ⛅ | 🌤️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ⛅ | ❄️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | |||||||
| mostly clear | mostly clear | some clouds | light drizzle | clear | cloudy | light snow | mostly clear | some clouds | mostly clear | mostly clear | clear | some clouds | snow | cloudy | cloudy | cloudy | cloudy | snow | heavy snow | snow | ||||||||
| Summit1,758 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 0° | 5° | -3° | 1° | 1° | -2° | -5° | -2° | -6° | -3° | 1° | -6° | -1° | 0° | -4° | -2° | 0° | -2° | -1° | -3° | -3° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -4° | 1° | -6° | -3° | -4° | -6° | -10° | -6° | -10° | -7° | -3° | -9° | -5° | -3° | -7° | -6° | -3° | -5° | -5° | -10° | -9° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | 0.3 | · | 1.8 | 0.2 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | · | · | 0.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 8.8 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 2.0 | · | 3.9 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | · | · | 0.2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 12.6 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 8 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 19 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain1,598 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 1° | 6° | -1° | 2° | 2° | -1° | -4° | -1° | -5° | -2° | 2° | -5° | 0° | 2° | -3° | -1° | 1° | -1° | 0° | -2° | -2° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -3° | 2° | -5° | -2° | -3° | -5° | -9° | -5° | -9° | -6° | -2° | -8° | -4° | -2° | -6° | -4° | -2° | -4° | -4° | -8° | -7° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | 0.2 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | · | · | 0.1 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 2.0 | · | 3.9 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | · | · | 0.2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 12.6 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 8 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 19 | |||||||
| Base1,438 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 2° | 7° | 0° | 3° | 3° | 0° | -3° | 0° | -4° | -1° | 3° | -4° | 1° | 3° | -2° | 0° | 2° | 0° | 1° | -1° | -1° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -2° | 4° | -4° | -1° | -2° | -3° | -8° | -4° | -8° | -5° | -1° | -7° | -2° | -1° | -4° | -3° | -1° | -3° | -3° | -7° | -6° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | · | 0.4 | 0.2 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | · | · | · | 3.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 2.0 | · | 3.9 | 0.3 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | · | · | 0.2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 12.6 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 8 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 19 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 80 | 71 | 95 | 81 | 51 | 97 | 73 | 55 | 88 | 68 | 51 | 83 | 80 | 85 | 98 | 94 | 89 | 99 | 87 | 77 | 96 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
Every model for Rainbow, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Rainbow (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →New Zealand region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Rainbow is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 6 past El Niño winters at Rainbow, ERA5 season snowfall median was 31 cm (12 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
31cm
6 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median
All-season median
31cm
Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 6 | 31cm | 18cm – 92cm | 2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 28cm | 11cm – 113cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 31cm | 21cm – 127cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
