El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Showdown Montana El Niño rank & forecast
Showdown Montana ranks #403 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −15% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
#403 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter
Strong-event signal: −15% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Showdown Montana averaged -15% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -40%, '15-16 -25%, '23-24 +21%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 −40%'15-16 −25%'23-24 +21%
