Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

South America

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: August, July, June · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 21

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

3cm

Past 48 Hours

7cm

Past 10 Days

7cm

7-Day Forecast

204cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 1:03 AM•Weather at base: 1,200m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Status unconfirmed

Ski Pucón is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

August

#1 to book

69cm avg

July

#2 to book

64cm avg

June

#3 to book

49cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

In the past week, 7cm of new snow has accumulated.

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Forecast

204cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is at 194cm, which is 74% of the 5-year average of 261cm.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 01:03 AM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

2,100m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 1:03 AM

7cm

24h

204cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

7cm

24h

204cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

7cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue -3° / -10°			23 Wed -1° / -4°			24 Thu 1° / -2°			25 Fri 1° / -2°			26 Sat 5° / -2°			27 Sun 2° / -3°			28 Mon 1° / -4°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun
Conditions	☁️	❄️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️
	cloudy	snow	cloudy	rain	rain	rain	rain	light rain	rain	light rain	light rain	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light rain	light drizzle	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	snow	heavy drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle
Summit2,100 mModeled
Temp°C	-4°	-3°	-7°	-3°	-1°	-2°	-1°	1°	-1°	-2°	1°	-1°	0°	4°	-1°	0°	2°	-2°	-2°	1°	-3°	-2°	-2°	0°	-2°	-2°	-0°
Feels like°C	-7°	-7°	-10°	-7°	-6°	-7°	-5°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-3°	-5°	-3°	1°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-5°	-3°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-5°	-4°
Snowcm	0.1	2	8.9	14.1	21.8	37.9	15.9	9.9	34.9	4.5	2.1	6.9	0.5	·	1.5	3.4	·	4.1	2	1.7	3.4	3.2	16.1	7.4	0.8	1	2.1
Precipmm	0.2	2.8	12.7	20.1	31.1	54.1	22.7	14.2	49.9	6.4	6.1	9.8	0.9	1.4	3.4	4.9	9.0	5.9	2.8	2.8	4.8	4.6	23.0	14.2	1.2	2.4	5.8
Windkm/h	3	6	4	11	19	15	13	16	16	9	11	7	7	10	5	9	12	5	6	8	4	12	8	13	12	8	9
Mid-mountain1,650 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	0°	-4°	0°	2°	1°	2°	4°	2°	1°	4°	2°	3°	7°	2°	3°	5°	1°	1°	3°	0°	1°	1°	3°	1°	1°	3°
Feels like°C	-4°	-4°	-7°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-1°	0°	-2°	-2°	1°	-1°	0°	4°	0°	0°	1°	-2°	-2°	0°	-3°	-3°	-3°	0°	-3°	-2°	-0°
Snowcm	0.1	2	8.9	14.1	2.8	12.7	·	·	2.2	2.9	·	5.4	·	·	0.2	·	·	1.3	1	·	2.5	2.2	8.7	·	0.2	0.2	·
Precipmm	0.2	2.8	12.7	20.1	31.1	54.1	22.7	14.2	49.9	6.4	6.1	9.8	0.9	1.4	3.4	4.9	9.0	5.9	2.8	2.8	4.8	4.6	23.0	14.2	1.2	2.4	5.8
Windkm/h	3	6	4	11	19	15	13	16	16	9	11	7	7	10	5	9	12	5	6	8	4	12	8	13	12	8	9
Base1,200 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	3°	-1°	3°	5°	4°	5°	7°	5°	4°	7°	5°	6°	10°	5°	6°	8°	4°	4°	6°	3°	4°	4°	6°	4°	4°	6°
Feels like°C	-1°	-1°	-4°	-1°	0°	0°	2°	3°	1°	2°	4°	2°	4°	8°	3°	3°	5°	2°	2°	4°	1°	0°	1°	4°	1°	2°	3°
Snowcm	·	0.8	1.5	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	2.7	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.2	2.8	12.7	20.1	31.1	54.1	22.7	14.2	49.9	6.4	6.1	9.8	0.9	1.4	3.4	4.9	9.0	5.9	2.8	2.8	4.8	4.6	23.0	14.2	1.2	2.4	5.8
Windkm/h	3	6	4	11	19	15	13	16	16	9	11	7	7	10	5	9	12	5	6	8	4	12	8	13	12	8	9
Humidity%	64	71	93	94	96	96	99	98	98	98	95	96	90	77	94	97	92	96	94	74	92	88	95	95	84	79	89
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,130	1,645	1,785	1,650	1,405	1,645
Sunhours																						7.9	0	5.6	9	9	4.3

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Ski Pucón, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Ski Pucón (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Ski Pucón El Niño rank & forecast

Ski Pucón ranks #319 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −8% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#319 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −8% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Ski Pucón averaged -8% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -32%, '15-16 -21%, '23-24 +30%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −32%'15-16 −21%'23-24 +30%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−8%

Measured to date

−4%

Season total

194 cm

Vs predicted

+3%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Ski Pucón, ERA5 season snowfall median was 183 cm (72 in), about 1% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

183cm

6 El Niño winters · 1% below median

All-season median

184cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	183cm	169cm – 184cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	184cm	133cm – 281cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	188cm	133cm – 272cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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