Skip to main content
Ski Santa Fe ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Ski Santa Fe Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 26, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 26

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 1

11d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 12, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 3,154m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 26

Ski Santa Fe is projected to open November 26, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 15 Mar–21 Mar.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarOpens 26 NovCloses 22 Mar

Best months to book

  1. #1February28cm avg · last season 16.9
  2. #2January26cm avg
  3. #3March31cm avg · last season 9.3

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 16.9
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 9.7
  3. #3 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 9.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,682m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:02 PM

0cm
24h
1cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now12
—
T13
—
W14
—
T15
1
F16
0
S17
—
S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
8° / -2°
13 Tue
8° / -2°
14 Wed
6° / -6°
15 Thu
8° / -9°
16 Fri
3° / -6°
17 Sat
7° / -4°
18 Sun
5° / -2°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions☁️⛅☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️⛅☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️☁️☀️☀️☁️⛅☀️☀️
cloudysome cloudsclearclearclearclearclearsome cloudsclearclearclearclearcloudycloudycloudyclearclearcloudysome cloudsclearclear
Summit3,682 mModeled
Temp°C2°7°1°1°7°0°1°5°-3°-1°7°-5°-3°2°-4°0°6°-2°1°4°-1°
Feels like°C-1°3°-2°-2°3°-3°-3°0°-6°-5°3°-10°-9°-4°-9°-4°2°-6°-2°1°-4°
Snowcm·················1.5··0.4
Precipmm0.60.30.9··············2.1··0.6
Windkm/h3135412471647711121810484795
Mid-mountain3,418 mModeled
Temp°C4°9°3°3°8°2°2°7°-1°1°8°-3°-1°4°-2°2°7°0°3°6°1°
Feels like°C1°5°0°0°5°-1°-1°2°-4°-3°5°-8°-7°-3°-7°-2°4°-4°0°3°-3°
Snowcm·················1.1··0.4
Precipmm0.60.30.9··············2.1··0.6
Windkm/h3135412471647711121810484795
Base3,154 mModeled
Temp°C5°11°4°4°10°4°4°8°1°3°10°-2°0°5°-1°4°9°1°5°8°2°
Feels like°C3°7°2°2°7°1°1°4°-2°-1°7°-6°-5°-1°-5°0°6°-2°1°5°-1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.60.30.9··············2.1··0.6
Windkm/h3135412471647711121810484795
Humidity%935990895382765375403176331549374652775485
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Ski Santa Fe, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Ski Santa Fe (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Ski Santa Fe El Niño rank & forecast

Ski Santa Fe ranks #77 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +10% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#77 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +10% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Ski Santa Fe averaged +10% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Ski Santa Fe sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -3%, '15-16 -13%, '23-24 +46%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −3%'15-16 −14%'23-24 +46%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Ski Santa Fe, ERA5 season snowfall median was 184 cm (72 in), about 15% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

184cm

10 El Niño winters · 15% above median

All-season median

161cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10184cm157cm – 236cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12150cm126cm – 174cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8160cm114cm – 237cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Ski Santa Fe

How much snow is Ski Santa Fe getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Ski Santa Fe over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Ski Santa Fe?
The full 14-day forecast for Ski Santa Fe — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Ski Santa Fe?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.