El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Smugglers' Notch El Niño rank & forecast
Smugglers' Notch ranks #320 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −8% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.
#320 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar
Strong-event signal: −8% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Smugglers' Notch averaged -8% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +7%, '15-16 -42%, '23-24 +13%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 +7%'15-16 −42%'23-24 +13%
