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Snow Farm ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

📷 Denys Nevozhai

Oceania

Snow Farm Snow Forecast

30

Solid · 2026 season average

Closed for the season · average of 27 verified open days

Best months to book: August, September · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed September 13

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 27

8d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

6cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

8

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2

2026 season

Updated: Oct 5, 4:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,520m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
30

Solid

2026 season average

Snow Farm is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 30.3 across 27 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, September. Best weeks: 25 Aug–31 Aug, 18 Aug–24 Aug, 1 Sep–7 Sep.1Aug2SepOpened 18 AugClosed 13 Sep

Best months to book

  1. #1August24cm avg · scored 30.1
  2. #2September26cm avg · scored 30.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 25 Aug – 31 Aug · 42.6
  2. #2 18 Aug – 24 Aug · 17.7
  3. #3 1 Sep – 7 Sep · 31.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 26 Aug – 8 Sep. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,965m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 5, 2026 at 4:04 PM

6cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
6
Prev10d
—
Now5
—
T6
0
W7
0
T8
—
F9
—
S10
—
S11
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

6 Tue
5° / -7°
7 Wed
8° / -3°
8 Thu
6° / 0°
9 Fri
9° / -2°
10 Sat
7° / -2°
11 Sun
9° / -1°
12 Mon
10° / 2°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight13 Tue14 Wed15 Thu16 Fri17 Sat18 Sun19 Mon
Conditions⛅☁️☁️🌧️⛅☁️☁️☁️🌧️☁️⛅⛅🌤️☁️☁️⛅☀️🌤️🌧️⛅☁️
some cloudscloudycloudylight drizzlesome cloudscloudycloudycloudylight drizzlecloudysome cloudssome cloudsmostly clearcloudycloudysome cloudsclearmostly clearlight drizzlesome cloudscloudy
Summit1,965 mModeled
Temp°C-3°3°-2°-1°6°1°1°5°2°1°8°2°1°7°2°2°9°4°4°9°4°
Feels like°C-7°-1°-6°-4°3°-2°-3°2°-1°-2°6°0°-2°3°-1°0°5°1°1°6°1°
Snowcm···0.8·0.1··0.2············
Precipmm···1.1·0.40.10.20.9····0.6····2.40.62.4
Windkm/h7127584755221312341436127
Mid-mountain1,743 mModeled
Temp°C-2°5°-1°1°8°2°2°7°4°2°10°4°3°8°3°4°10°5°6°11°6°
Feels like°C-6°1°-4°-2°5°-1°-1°4°1°0°8°2°0°4°0°1°7°3°3°8°3°
Snowcm···0.6·0.1···············
Precipmm···1.1·0.40.10.20.9····0.6····2.40.62.4
Windkm/h7127584755221312341436127
Base1,520 mModeled
Temp°C0°6°1°2°9°4°3°8°5°3°11°5°4°10°5°5°11°7°7°12°7°
Feels like°C-4°2°-3°-1°6°1°1°6°3°1°10°3°2°6°2°3°8°4°5°9°5°
Snowcm···0.1·0.1···············
Precipmm···1.1·0.40.10.20.9····0.6····2.40.62.4
Windkm/h7127584755221312341436127
Humidity%795874865780967288905482816078825275856677
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Snow Farm, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Snow Farm (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Snow Farm El Niño rank & forecast

Snow Farm ranks #92 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#92 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Snow Farm averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Snow Farm sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -5%, '15-16 +27%, '23-24 +5%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −5%'15-16 +27%'23-24 +5%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Snow Farm, ERA5 season snowfall median was 122 cm (48 in), about 2% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

122cm

6 El Niño winters · 2% below median

All-season median

124cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6122cm117cm – 135cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4127cm103cm – 158cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21124cm99cm – 153cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Snow Farm

How much snow is Snow Farm getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Snow Farm over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Snow Farm?
The full 14-day forecast for Snow Farm — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Snow Farm?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.