Skip to main content
Stubai Glacier ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Stubai Glacier Snow Forecast

26

Fair

↗improving

Last Snowfall

Sep 24

11d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

19cm

Snow Depth

1cm

Modeled
Updated: Oct 5, 8:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,695m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
26
Fair
↑improving

Adequate snow - check forecasts before booking.

Currently, Stubai Glacier has a thin snow base of just 1cm, with no new snowfall recorded in the past week. The temperature is chilly at -3°C, and conditions are partly cloudy, setting the stage for some potential snowfall ahead.

AI-generated summary
↓

Depth

1cm depth — upper mountain may be better.

—

Recent

No new snow has fallen in the last 7 days.

✓

Forecast

19cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

So far this season, snow accumulation is significantly below the 5-year average of 389cm.

Data updated Mon, Oct 5, 08:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

3,210m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 5, 2026 at 8:04 PM

0cm
24h
19cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
7
Now5
1
T6
2
W7
5
T8
3
F9
1
S10
0
S11
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

5 Mon
-0° / -4°
6 Tue
1° / -6°
7 Wed
0° / -7°
8 Thu
-1° / -7°
9 Fri
-6° / -12°
10 Sat
-2° / -10°
11 Sun
-3° / -10°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight12 Mon13 Tue14 Wed15 Thu16 Fri17 Sat18 Sun
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️☀️🌤️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☁️🌧️☁️☁️☀️❄️❄️🌧️🌧️❄️🌤️⛅
light drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzleclearmostly clearclearclearclearmostly clearcloudylight drizzlecloudycloudyclearsnowlight snowlight drizzlelight drizzlelight snowmostly clearsome clouds
Summit3,210 mModeled
Temp°C-2°-1°-3°-4°1°-5°-5°0°-5°-3°-1°-5°-9°-7°-9°-6°-3°-7°-8°-4°-7°
Feels like°C-5°-3°-6°-7°-3°-9°-9°-4°-9°-7°-5°-9°-14°-11°-14°-9°-6°-10°-11°-7°-11°
Snowcm2.92.11.5······0.24.68··2.10.20.60.80.4·0.4
Precipmm4.23.02.1······0.36.611.4··2.70.30.91.20.6·0.6
Windkm/h2224744106867976223432
Mid-mountain2,453 mModeled
Temp°C3°4°2°1°6°0°-1°5°-1°2°3°0°-4°-2°-5°-1°2°-2°-3°1°-2°
Feels like°C1°2°0°-2°3°-3°-4°1°-4°-1°1°-3°-8°-6°-8°-4°0°-5°-6°-2°-5°
Snowcm·········0.1·7.1··2.10.20.10.80.4·0.4
Precipmm4.23.02.1······0.36.611.4··2.70.30.91.20.6·0.6
Windkm/h2224744106867976223432
Base1,695 mModeled
Temp°C8°9°7°6°11°5°4°10°4°7°8°5°1°3°0°4°7°3°2°6°3°
Feels like°C6°8°6°4°8°3°2°7°2°4°7°3°-3°0°-3°2°5°1°0°4°0°
Snowcm···········4.8··1.90.2·0.20.4··
Precipmm4.23.02.1······0.36.611.4··2.70.30.91.20.6·0.6
Windkm/h2224744106867976223432
Humidity%898892876782877187999398916782768372866989
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Stubai Glacier, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Stubai Glacier (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Stubai Glacier El Niño rank & forecast

Stubai Glacier ranks #89 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#89 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Stubai Glacier averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Stubai Glacier sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -15%, '15-16 -7%, '23-24 +50%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −7%'23-24 +50%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Stubai Glacier, ERA5 season snowfall median was 511 cm (201 in), about 4% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

511cm

10 El Niño winters · 4% below median

All-season median

530cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10511cm476cm – 637cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12552cm513cm – 691cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8516cm466cm – 581cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Stubai Glacier

How much snow is Stubai Glacier getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 19 cm (7 in) of snow at Stubai Glacier over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Stubai Glacier?
The full 14-day forecast for Stubai Glacier — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Stubai Glacier?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.