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Sugarloaf ski resort
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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

North America

Sugarloaf Snow Forecast

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

29cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 432m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 22

Sugarloaf is projected to open November 22, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 22 Mar–28 Mar, 22 Feb–28 Feb, 15 Mar–21 Mar.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprOpens 22 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February43cm avg · last season 35.4
  2. #2March42cm avg · last season 28.3
  3. #3January40cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 36.7
  2. #2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 35.4
  3. #3 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 33.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,291m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:02 PM

0cm
24h
29cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now12
15
T13
3
W14
—
T15
11
F16
1
S17
0
S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
13° / 1°
13 Tue
1° / -3°
14 Wed
6° / -1°
15 Thu
5° / -4°
16 Fri
0° / -4°
17 Sat
-1° / -7°
18 Sun
-2° / -9°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions☁️🌤️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️☁️☁️⛅☀️☁️❄️🌧️☁️☁️🌤️🌤️☀️⛅☀️
cloudymostly clearlight drizzledrizzlelight raincloudylight drizzlecloudycloudysome cloudsclearcloudylight snowlight raincloudycloudymostly clearmostly clearclearsome cloudsclear
Summit1,291 mModeled
Temp°C5°11°2°-3°-2°-1°2°6°1°-1°4°0°-3°-1°-2°-4°-3°-5°-7°-3°-8°
Feels like°C2°8°-1°-7°-7°-5°0°2°-3°-7°-2°-6°-6°-5°-5°-10°-10°-11°-12°-9°-13°
Snowcm···3.68.210.50.3·3.8···2.36.94··0.2···
Precipmm·0.31.55.111.715.00.90.35.4···3.39.95.7··0.3···
Windkm/h1115910121131414211616611523261913159
Mid-mountain862 mModeled
Temp°C8°14°5°0°0°2°5°8°4°2°6°2°0°2°1°-1°0°-2°-4°0°-6°
Feels like°C6°12°2°-4°-3°-2°3°5°1°-3°1°-2°-3°-1°-2°-7°-7°-8°-9°-6°-10°
Snowcm···3.68.20.3······2.31···0.1···
Precipmm·0.31.55.111.715.00.90.35.4···3.39.95.7··0.3···
Windkm/h1115910121131414211616611523261913159
Base432 mModeled
Temp°C11°17°8°2°3°5°8°11°7°5°9°5°3°5°4°2°3°1°-1°3°-3°
Feels like°C9°15°6°-1°0°1°7°9°4°0°5°1°0°2°2°-4°-4°-5°-6°-3°-7°
Snowcm············1.1········
Precipmm·0.31.55.111.715.00.90.35.4···3.39.95.7··0.3···
Windkm/h1115910121131414211616611523261913159
Humidity%9170949899959783927045779310088774373634564
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Sugarloaf, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Sugarloaf (east coast), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Northeast US region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Sugarloaf El Niño rank & forecast

Sugarloaf ranks #260 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −4% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#260 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Sugarloaf averaged -3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 0%, '15-16 -40%, '23-24 +30%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 0%'15-16 −40%'23-24 +30%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Sugarloaf, ERA5 season snowfall median was 224 cm (88 in), about 1% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

224cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% above median

All-season median

221cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10224cm203cm – 290cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12228cm186cm – 264cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8206cm195cm – 244cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Sugarloaf

How much snow is Sugarloaf getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 29 cm (11 in) of snow at Sugarloaf over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Sugarloaf?
The full 14-day forecast for Sugarloaf — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Sugarloaf?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.