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Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

North America

Projected to open December 6, 2026

Best months to book: March, February, January · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Dec 6

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 10

13d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

7cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 23, 8:03 AM•Weather at base: 796m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Dec 6

Summit at Snoqualmie is projected to open December 6, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1March101cm avg · last season 43.1
#2February109cm avg · last season 40.4
#3January126cm avg

Best weeks to book

#1 10 Mar – 16 Mar · last season 65.4
#2 3 Mar – 9 Mar · last season 46.3
#3 24 Feb – 2 Mar · last season 39.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Oct 23 at 8:03 AM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

1cm

Season

0cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

7cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

Seasontotal

Wed21

Thu22

14 daystotal

—

TueOct 13

Wed14

Thu15

Fri16

Sat17

Sun18

Mon19

Tue20

TODAY23

Sat24

Sun25

Mon26

Tue27

Wed28

Thu29

Fri30

Sat31

SunNov 1

Mon2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past snow is the model's estimate at the summit: no measurement reached us for these days.

Hourly Forecast

	23 Fri 2° / -4°			24 Sat 7° / -5°			25 Sun 2° / -2°			26 Mon 5° / -2°			27 Tue 3° / -2°			28 Wed 7° / -4°			29 Thu 7° / -4°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	30 Fri	31 Sat	1 Sun	2 Mon	3 Tue	4 Wed	5 Thu
Conditions	🌧️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☁️	🌤️	❄️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️
	light drizzle	mostly clear	clear	clear	cloudy	mostly clear	snow	drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	cloudy	drizzle	drizzle	drizzle	light rain
Summit1,652 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	2°	-1°	0°	6°	0°	1°	4°	1°	2°	5°	1°	0°	2°	0°	0°	3°	-1°	-1°	3°	-2°	1°	1°	1°	1°	2°	2°	0°
Feels like°C	-5°	-2°	-6°	-4°	2°	-5°	-5°	-2°	-4°	-2°	1°	-2°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-4°	3°	-5°	-3°	2°	-5°	-1°	0°	0°	2°	0°	-2°	-4°
Snowcm	0.1	·	0.1	·	·	·	0.9	·	0.5	0.1	·	0.8	0.2	·	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.3	1.1	0.6	0.9	1.2	0.5	2.8
Precipmm	0.2	·	0.1	·	·	·	2.5	1.5	0.8	0.4	1.2	1.5	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	0.5	1.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.4	1.5	1.1	3.0	4.8	3.3	17.6
Windkm/h	5	6	4	3	4	3	9	10	8	2	5	4	5	7	3	10	3	5	10	10	9	7	3	4	6	10	8	15
Mid-mountain1,224 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	5°	1°	2°	8°	2°	3°	6°	3°	4°	7°	3°	3°	5°	2°	2°	6°	1°	2°	6°	0°	3°	4°	3°	4°	5°	4°	3°
Feels like°C	-2°	1°	-3°	-1°	5°	-2°	-2°	1°	-1°	1°	4°	1°	0°	3°	0°	0°	6°	-2°	1°	5°	-2°	2°	4°	3°	5°	4°	1°	-1°
Snowcm	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	0.5	·	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.2	1.1	·	0.5	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.2	·	0.1	·	·	·	2.5	1.5	0.8	0.4	1.2	1.5	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	0.5	1.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.4	1.5	1.1	3.0	4.8	3.3	17.6
Windkm/h	5	6	4	3	4	3	9	10	8	2	5	4	5	7	3	10	3	5	10	10	9	7	3	4	6	10	8	15
Base796 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	8°	4°	5°	12°	5°	6°	9°	6°	7°	10°	6°	6°	8°	5°	5°	9°	4°	5°	9°	3°	6°	6°	6°	7°	8°	7°	6°
Feels like°C	2°	4°	0°	2°	9°	1°	1°	4°	2°	4°	8°	4°	4°	6°	3°	3°	10°	1°	4°	8°	1°	5°	7°	6°	8°	7°	5°	3°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.8	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.2	0.1	·	·	·	·	2.6	1.5	0.8	0.4	1.2	1.5	0.5	0.6	0.9	1.2	0.5	1.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.4	1.5	1.1	3.0	4.8	3.3	17.6
Windkm/h	5	6	4	3	4	3	9	10	8	2	5	4	5	7	3	10	3	5	10	10	9	7	3	4	6	10	8	15
Humidity%	99	79	96	55	36	74	96	81	83	95	88	99	97	80	98	81	62	89	64	46	77	64	53	66	97	97	93	98
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1,950	2,050	2,550	3,350	3,400	3,000	2,300
Sunhours																						8.8	8.7	6.7	1.2	0	2	0

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Summit at Snoqualmie, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Summit at Snoqualmie (cascades), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Summit at Snoqualmie El Niño rank & forecast

Summit at Snoqualmie ranks #430 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#430 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Summit at Snoqualmie averaged -17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The honest read: this is the fleet's deepest timing play. The snow still comes — it comes later and leaner, so point your winter 2026-27 trip at the historical late-winter peak, stay flexible on dates, and watch our monthly scorecard. Analog winters: '97-98 -30%, '15-16 -22%, '23-24 -0%. One caveat that always holds: a single storm cycle can beat the climatology.

'97-98 −30%'15-16 −22%'23-24 −1%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Summit at Snoqualmie, ERA5 season snowfall median was 482 cm (190 in), about 25% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

482cm

10 El Niño winters · 25% below median

All-season median

644cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	482cm	416cm – 626cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	736cm	640cm – 852cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	664cm	589cm – 782cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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