Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Oceania

Good

→stable

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

12cm

7-Day Forecast

15cm

Snow Depth

100cm

Resort reported

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 10:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,326m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Good

→stable

Excellent snow depth - conditions are locked in.

Temple Basin is currently experiencing mainly clear conditions with a snow depth of 100cm. Over the past week, 12cm of new snow has fallen, contributing to a season total of 189cm, which is 85% of the 5-year average for this time of year.

AI-generated summary

✓

Depth

100cm depth — excellent coverage.

↓

Recent

In the last 7 days, 12cm of new snow has been recorded.

↓

Forecast

15cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

Season-to-date snow accumulation is at 189cm, compared to a 5-year average of 223cm.

Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 10:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

1,753m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 10:04 PM

12cm

24h

15cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now21

T22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

12cm

24h

15cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

12cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 21

TueSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue 2° / -5°			23 Wed -1° / -8°			24 Thu 1° / -8°			25 Fri -1° / -4°			26 Sat 1° / -3°			27 Sun 0° / -10°			28 Mon 0° / -11°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon
Conditions	⛅	❄️	☁️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	⛅	☀️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	⛅	☀️	☀️	🌤️	☀️	🌤️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️
	some clouds	light snow	cloudy	clear	mostly clear	clear	clear	some clouds	clear	snow	snow	cloudy	light snow	light drizzle	light drizzle	light snow	some clouds	clear	clear	mostly clear	clear	mostly clear	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle
Summit1,753 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	1°	-2°	-5°	-2°	-6°	-3°	0°	-5°	-2°	-1°	-3°	-2°	0°	-1°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-6°	0°	-7°	0°	-1°	1°	1°	1°	1°	-1°
Feels like°C	-4°	-4°	-6°	-10°	-6°	-10°	-8°	-3°	-9°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-6°	-3°	-5°	-12°	-9°	-10°	-10°	-3°	-11°	-3°	-6°	-2°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-5°
Snowcm	0.6	0.6	9.4	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1.8	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.8	1.3	·	5.4	·	·	·	·	3.3	1.6	·	0.2	0.4	0.8
Precipmm	0.9	0.8	13.4	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	2.5	4.0	1.2	1.0	0.7	1.1	1.9	·	7.7	·	·	·	·	4.6	3.2	·	2.7	1.5	1.2
Windkm/h	5	16	13	10	10	4	8	11	7	7	9	8	13	11	12	18	12	7	4	1	4	5	17	7	12	13	15	12
Mid-mountain1,540 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	2°	0°	-4°	-1°	-5°	-2°	2°	-4°	-1°	0°	-1°	-1°	2°	0°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-5°	1°	-6°	1°	0°	3°	2°	2°	3°	1°
Feels like°C	-2°	-2°	-4°	-8°	-5°	-8°	-6°	-2°	-7°	-4°	-3°	-5°	-5°	-2°	-3°	-11°	-8°	-9°	-8°	-1°	-9°	-1°	-4°	-0°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-3°
Snowcm	0.6	0.6	0.8	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1.8	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.1	0.1	1.3	·	5.2	·	·	·	·	2.6	0.5	·	0.1	·	0.3
Precipmm	0.9	0.8	13.4	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	2.5	4.0	1.2	1.0	0.7	1.1	1.9	·	7.7	·	·	·	·	4.6	3.2	·	2.7	1.5	1.2
Windkm/h	5	16	13	10	10	4	8	11	7	7	9	8	13	11	12	18	12	7	4	1	4	5	17	7	12	13	15	12
Base1,326 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	3°	1°	-2°	1°	-3°	-1°	3°	-2°	1°	2°	0°	1°	3°	2°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-3°	2°	-4°	3°	2°	4°	3°	4°	4°	2°
Feels like°C	-1°	-1°	-3°	-7°	-3°	-7°	-5°	0°	-6°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-3°	0°	-2°	-9°	-6°	-7°	-7°	0°	-8°	0°	-3°	1°	0°	0°	0°	-2°
Snowcm	0.1	0.6	0.4	·	0.2	·	·	·	·	1.6	2.2	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.1	1.3	·	5	·	·	·	·	1.1	0.2	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.9	0.8	13.4	·	0.3	·	·	·	·	2.5	4.0	1.2	1.0	0.7	1.1	1.9	·	7.7	·	·	·	·	4.6	3.2	·	2.7	1.5	1.2
Windkm/h	5	16	13	10	10	4	8	11	7	7	9	8	13	11	12	18	12	7	4	1	4	5	17	7	12	13	15	12
Humidity%	82	67	96	75	55	87	71	69	92	95	93	98	97	94	98	88	69	88	70	58	74	72	91	91	88	89	85	87
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2,025	1,835	1,835	1,725	1,315	1,745	2,310
Sunhours																						11.7	10.3	6	11.8	11	11.9	0

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Temple Basin, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Temple Basin (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Temple Basin El Niño rank & forecast

Temple Basin ranks #434 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −18% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#434 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −18% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Temple Basin averaged -18% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -23%, '15-16 -30%, '23-24 0%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −23%'15-16 −30%'23-24 0%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−18%

Measured to date

+35%

Season total

189 cm

Vs predicted

+53%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Temple Basin, ERA5 season snowfall median was 147 cm (58 in), about 16% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

147cm

6 El Niño winters · 16% below median

All-season median

176cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	147cm	136cm – 169cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	144cm	106cm – 263cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	187cm	147cm – 228cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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