Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Asia

Off-season

Closed for the season · reopens Dec 12

Conditions data updated Sun, Sep 6, 06:06 AM UTC · informational only

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Off-season

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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14-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

Updated: Sep 6, 6:06 AM•Weather at base: 1220m

SnowSure™ Score

Off-season

Closed for the season · reopens Dec 12

19 runs · 7 lifts — live counts and the SnowSure™ Score return when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1748m

Updated Sep 6, 2026 at 6:06 AM

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TODAYSep 6

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Today / High Snow

14-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	6 Sun 12° / 8°			7 Mon 18° / 10°			8 Tue 18° / 11°			9 Wed 14° / 10°			10 Thu 12° / 9°			11 Fri 16° / 10°			12 Sat 16° / 11°			13 Sun 16° / 11°	14 Mon 15° / 10°	15 Tue 13° / 9°	16 Wed 15° / 9°	17 Thu 13° / 11°	18 Fri 12° / 9°	19 Sat 14° / 8°
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	Day	Day	Day	Day	Day	Day	Day
Conditions	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	⛅	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️
	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	heavy drizzle	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	heavy drizzle	cloudy	rain	light rain	light rain	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	drizzle	light rain	light rain	light rain	drizzle
Summit1,748 mModeled
Temp°C	10°	11°	9°	12°	17°	12°	15°	17°	12°	13°	13°	12°	10°	12°	9°	12°	15°	11°	13°	15°	12°	13°	13°	11°	12°	11°	11°	11°
Feels like°C	7°	9°	7°	12°	18°	11°	15°	17°	13°	13°	13°	11°	9°	11°	9°	11°	16°	10°	12°	16°	12°	14°	13°	11°	12°	11°	11°	11°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	1.0	10.3	8.2	0.2	21.1	0.2	6.6	14.8	14.4	7.3	37.2	0.4	0.4	11.1	0.5	1.8	1.2	1.2	2.2	1.5	5.4	3.0	9.6	9.4	30.8	37.4	5.2
Windkm/h	13	16	11	5	3	5	4	5	3	4	5	3	4	5	4	5	2	2	5	2	1	4	4	7	5	4	2	7
Mid-mountain1,484 mModeled
Temp°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Feels like°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Snowcm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Precipmm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Windkm/h	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Base1,220 mModeled
Temp°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Feels like°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Snowcm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Precipmm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Windkm/h	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Humidity%	86	84	96	95	83	97	86	89	99	97	95	99	95	88	98	88	78	99	92	82	98	95	91	97	92	97	98	89
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Togakushi (japan), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Japanese Alps region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Togakushi El Niño rank & forecast

Togakushi ranks #309 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#309 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Togakushi averaged -7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -14%, '15-16 -26%, '23-24 +20%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −26%'23-24 +20%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Togakushi, ERA5 season snowfall median was 537 cm (211 in), about 1% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

537 cm

10 El Niño winters · 1% below median

All-season median

541 cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	537 cm	486 cm – 609 cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	558 cm	497 cm – 617 cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	542 cm	486 cm – 618 cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Togakushi

How much snow is Togakushi getting this week?: No significant snow is forecast at Togakushi over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Togakushi?: Across the forecast models we track, Togakushi is expected to see about 0 cm (0 in) of snow over the next 14 days. The by-model chart on this page shows each model's own number.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Togakushi?: We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.