Oceania
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Last Snowfall
Sep 20
2d agoPast 24 Hours
5cm
Resort reportedPast 48 Hours
5cm
Past 10 Days
5cm
7-Day Forecast
51cm
Snow Depth
30cm
Resort reportedPowder Days
9
2026 season
Bluebird Days
2
2026 season
Solid conditions with good coverage.
Current conditions at Tūroa show a snow depth of 30cm, with a slight rain impacting the snow quality. The resort has seen 5cm of snowfall in the past week, maintaining a solid base for skiing. Looking ahead, the 14-day forecast averages suggest a potential 88cm of new snow, which could enhance the skiing experience.
AI-generated summaryDepth
30cm depth — good coverage on most runs.
Recent
There has been 5cm of snowfall in the last week, with the last snow recorded just 2 days ago.
Forecast
51cm in the next 7 days.
Historic
Season-to-date snowfall stands at 99cm, which is slightly above the 5-year average of 98cm.
Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 03:04 AM UTC
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.
Unlock with ProHistorical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend
22 Tue -0° / -7° | 23 Wed -4° / -10° | 24 Thu -4° / -11° | 25 Fri -2° / -7° | 26 Sat -1° / -6° | 27 Sun 1° / -8° | 28 Mon -5° / -9° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 29 Tue | 30 Wed | 1 Thu | 2 Fri | 3 Sat | 4 Sun | 5 Mon | |
| Conditions | ☁️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | ❄️ | ☀️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ❄️ | 🌧️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | |||||||
| cloudy | light rain | cloudy | light snow | light snow | cloudy | clear | light snow | clear | some clouds | light drizzle | cloudy | light drizzle | light rain | cloudy | light rain | heavy rain | heavy snow | light drizzle | snow | snow | ||||||||
| Summit2,322 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -2° | -2° | -5° | -6° | -5° | -8° | -8° | -5° | -9° | -5° | -3° | -6° | -5° | -3° | -3° | 0° | -2° | -4° | -8° | -5° | -8° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -6° | -7° | -9° | -11° | -10° | -13° | -13° | -9° | -14° | -9° | -7° | -10° | -9° | -7° | -8° | -6° | -8° | -10° | -13° | -10° | -13° | |||||||
| Snowcm | 1 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | · | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 12.4 | 26.7 | 10.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.8 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | · | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 17.7 | 38.2 | 15.2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 6.9 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 11 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 16 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain1,961 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 0° | 0° | -3° | -4° | -3° | -5° | -6° | -2° | -7° | -3° | 0° | -4° | -2° | 0° | -1° | 2° | 1° | -2° | -6° | -3° | -5° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -4° | -4° | -7° | -8° | -8° | -11° | -11° | -7° | -11° | -6° | -5° | -8° | -6° | -4° | -5° | -3° | -5° | -7° | -10° | -8° | -10° | |||||||
| Snowcm | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | · | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.8 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | · | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 17.7 | 38.2 | 15.2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 6.9 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 11 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 16 | |||||||
| Base1,600 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 2° | 2° | 0° | -1° | -1° | -3° | -3° | 0° | -5° | 0° | 2° | -2° | 0° | 2° | 1° | 4° | 3° | 0° | -3° | -1° | -3° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -1° | -2° | -4° | -5° | -5° | -8° | -8° | -4° | -9° | -4° | -2° | -5° | -3° | -2° | -2° | -1° | -2° | -4° | -8° | -5° | -8° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | · | 0.5 | 0.4 | · | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | · | 0.4 | · | 2.3 | 8.7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.8 | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | · | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 17.7 | 38.2 | 15.2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 6.9 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 11 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 16 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 99 | 94 | 99 | 95 | 81 | 96 | 68 | 68 | 91 | 90 | 89 | 98 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 88 | 86 | 99 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| Sunhours | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.
Every model for Tūroa, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Tūroa (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →New Zealand region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Tūroa is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 6 past El Niño winters at Tūroa, ERA5 season snowfall median was 43 cm (17 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
43cm
6 El Niño winters · 3% above median
All-season median
42cm
Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 6 | 43cm | 30cm – 81cm | 2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 18cm | 7cm – 51cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 42cm | 23cm – 127cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
