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Vail ski resort
Epic PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Vail Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 13, 2026

Best months to book: April, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 13

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

8cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 10:00 PM•Weather at base: 2,475m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 13

Vail is projected to open November 13, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, February, March. Best weeks: 12 Apr–18 Apr, 5 Apr–11 Apr, 1 Mar–7 Mar.NovDecJan2Feb3Mar1AprOpens 13 NovCloses 19 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1April52cm avg · last season 29.6
  2. #2February41cm avg · last season 36.3
  3. #3March44cm avg · last season 25.9

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 12 Apr – 18 Apr · last season 29.6
  2. #2 5 Apr – 11 Apr · last season 29
  3. #3 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 33.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,527m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 PM

0cm
24h
8cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
—
Now12
2
T13
2
W14
5
T15
—
F16
—
S17
—
S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
11° / -1°
13 Tue
3° / -5°
14 Wed
4° / -4°
15 Thu
-2° / -9°
16 Fri
2° / -11°
17 Sat
4° / -10°
18 Sun
3° / -4°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions🌤️🌤️🌤️❄️❄️❄️⛅🌧️☁️❄️❄️🌤️🌤️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☀️🌤️☁️☀️
mostly clearmostly clearmostly clearsnowlight snowlight snowsome cloudslight drizzlecloudysnowsnowmostly clearmostly clearclearclearmostly clearclearclearmostly clearcloudyclear
Summit3,527 mModeled
Temp°C2°10°2°-2°1°-2°1°4°-2°-3°-3°-5°-8°1°-8°-4°3°-5°0°3°-2°
Feels like°C-2°5°-2°-5°-1°-6°-4°-1°-6°-7°-7°-8°-13°-4°-13°-7°0°-9°-3°0°-5°
Snowcm··0.12.70.63.8··4.34.12.33.9·········
Precipmm··0.23.81.95.50.20.96.35.93.35.6·········
Windkm/h9157415131877947116233332
Mid-mountain3,001 mModeled
Temp°C6°13°5°2°5°1°4°7°1°0°1°-1°-4°4°-5°0°7°-2°3°6°2°
Feels like°C2°9°2°-1°3°-2°0°3°-2°-3°-3°-4°-9°0°-9°-4°4°-5°1°4°-1°
Snowcm···2.40.43··3.94.12.33.9·········
Precipmm··0.23.81.95.50.20.96.35.93.35.6·········
Windkm/h9157415131877947116233332
Base2,475 mModeled
Temp°C9°16°9°5°8°4°8°10°5°4°4°2°-1°7°-2°3°10°1°6°10°5°
Feels like°C6°12°6°3°7°2°4°7°2°1°1°0°-5°3°-5°0°7°-1°5°8°3°
Snowcm···2.30.42.7··3.94.12.33.9·········
Precipmm··0.23.81.95.50.20.96.35.93.35.6·········
Windkm/h9157415131877947116233332
Humidity%773373948096897196978296523171624775846684
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Vail, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Vail (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Vail El Niño rank & forecast

Vail ranks #220 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, −1% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#220 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: −1% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Vail averaged -1% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Vail has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -23%, '15-16 -2%, '23-24 +24%.

'97-98 −23%'15-16 −2%'23-24 +24%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Vail, ERA5 season snowfall median was 310 cm (122 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

310cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

310cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10310cm295cm – 355cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12315cm281cm – 366cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8321cm253cm – 351cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Vail

How much snow is Vail getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 8 cm (3 in) of snow at Vail over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Vail?
The full 14-day forecast for Vail — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Vail?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.