Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: August, September, July · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

20cm

7-Day Forecast

10cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 5:06 PM•Weather at base: 3,000m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Status unconfirmed

Vallecitos is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

August

#1 to book

50cm avg

September

#2 to book

39cm avg

July

#3 to book

43cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

In the past week, 20cm of new snow has fallen.

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Forecast

10cm in the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snow totals are 171% of the 5-year average.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 05:06 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

3,650m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 5:06 PM

20cm

24h

10cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

20cm

24h

10cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

20cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue 1° / -8°			23 Wed 2° / -1°			24 Thu 1° / -2°			25 Fri 0° / -4°			26 Sat 4° / -3°			27 Sun 4° / -5°			28 Mon 1° / -5°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon
Conditions	🌤️	☀️	⛅	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️	☁️	❄️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	⛅	☀️	⛅	🌤️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌤️
	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	snow	light snow	light snow	light snow	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	some clouds	clear	some clouds	mostly clear	light drizzle	snow	snow	snow	snow	light snow	snow	snow	snow	mostly clear
Summit3,650 mModeled
Temp°C	-4°	0°	-4°	1°	2°	0°	-1°	1°	-1°	-3°	0°	-2°	-1°	4°	-1°	-2°	4°	-2°	0°	1°	-3°	-5°	-3°	-4°	-2°	-4°	-7°	-10°
Feels like°C	-8°	-1°	-8°	-5°	-5°	-6°	-5°	-3°	-5°	-7°	-4°	-6°	-6°	2°	-5°	-6°	1°	-7°	-3°	-2°	-7°	-9°	-7°	-6°	-5°	-8°	-10°	-14°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	2	0.8	1.6	0.4	0.2	0.9	0.1	1.1	0.6	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.1	2.2	1.5	8.4	11.8	2.1	10.4	21.2	8.3	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	3.1	1.7	2.3	0.5	0.3	1.3	0.2	1.5	0.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.6	3.4	2.2	12.0	16.8	3.0	14.8	30.2	12.0	·
Windkm/h	4	2	6	19	22	18	6	5	5	7	3	5	8	6	7	10	4	10	2	3	4	5	2	3	4	4	5	5
Mid-mountain3,325 mModeled
Temp°C	-2°	2°	-2°	3°	4°	2°	1°	3°	1°	0°	2°	0°	1°	6°	1°	0°	6°	0°	2°	3°	-1°	-3°	-1°	-2°	1°	-2°	-4°	-8°
Feels like°C	-6°	1°	-6°	-3°	-2°	-4°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-5°	-2°	-4°	-3°	4°	-3°	-4°	4°	-4°	-1°	0°	-4°	-7°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-8°	-11°
Snowcm	·	·	0.1	1.2	0.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.8	0.1	0.8	0.6	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.6	1.5	1.5	8.4	11.8	2.1	9.7	21.2	8.3	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	3.1	1.7	2.3	0.5	0.3	1.3	0.2	1.5	0.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.6	3.4	2.2	12.0	16.8	3.0	14.8	30.2	12.0	·
Windkm/h	4	2	6	19	22	18	6	5	5	7	3	5	8	6	7	10	4	10	2	3	4	5	2	3	4	4	5	5
Base3,000 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	4°	0°	5°	6°	4°	3°	5°	3°	2°	4°	2°	3°	8°	3°	3°	8°	2°	4°	5°	1°	-1°	1°	1°	3°	0°	-2°	-6°
Feels like°C	-3°	3°	-4°	-1°	0°	-1°	-1°	1°	-1°	-2°	1°	-1°	-1°	7°	-1°	-2°	6°	-2°	2°	2°	-2°	-4°	-2°	-2°	-0°	-3°	-6°	-9°
Snowcm	·	·	·	1.2	0.7	1	0.4	0.2	0.5	·	0.8	0.5	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.6	1.5	1	7.6	10.8	1.3	8.3	21.2	8.3	·
Precipmm	·	·	0.2	3.1	1.7	2.3	0.5	0.3	1.3	0.2	1.5	0.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.6	3.4	2.2	12.0	16.8	3.0	14.8	30.2	12.0	·
Windkm/h	4	2	6	19	22	18	6	5	5	7	3	5	8	6	7	10	4	10	2	3	4	5	2	3	4	4	5	5
Humidity%	50	62	56	52	46	47	45	46	49	55	55	52	43	51	43	40	44	41	61	57	56	59	72	80	68	78	65	44
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,235	2,795	2,565	1,965	1,570	2,295	3,025
Sunhours																						8.3	9	9	9	7.8	9.2	10.4

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Vallecitos, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Vallecitos (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Vallecitos El Niño rank & forecast

Vallecitos ranks #5 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +56% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#5 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +56% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Vallecitos averaged +56% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Vallecitos sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +60%, '15-16 +30%, '23-24 +79%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +60%'15-16 +30%'23-24 +79%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+56%

Measured to date

+113%

Season total

384 cm

Vs predicted

+57%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Vallecitos, ERA5 season snowfall median was 282 cm (111 in), about 21% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

282cm

6 El Niño winters · 21% above median

All-season median

233cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	282cm	254cm – 365cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	153cm	107cm – 235cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	227cm	169cm – 283cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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