Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area ski resort

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

North America

Status unconfirmed

Best months to book: February, January, December · 30-yr snow record

Scroll for happiness

Status unconfirmed

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Past 24 Hours

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

Updated: Sep 20, 4:04 PM•Weather at base: --m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Status unconfirmed

Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

February

#1 to book

17cm avg

January

#2 to book

17cm avg

December

#3 to book

20cm avg

Ranked on 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

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Depth

Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.

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Recent

No new snow has been reported in the past week.

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Forecast

Dry for the next 7 days.

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Historic

Season-to-date snowfall is not available, while the 5-year to-date average is 77cm.

Status unconfirmed · Data updated Sun, Sep 20, 04:04 PM UTC · informational only

Snow Summary

323m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 20, 2026 at 4:04 PM

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S26

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

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Previous10 Days

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TODAYSep 20

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MonSep 21

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ThuSep 24

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FriSep 25

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SatSep 26

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	20 Sun 18° / 14°			21 Mon 15° / 10°			22 Tue 16° / 8°			23 Wed 17° / 8°			24 Thu 18° / 12°			25 Fri 20° / 13°			26 Sat 16° / 13°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	27 Sun	28 Mon	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat
Conditions	🌤️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	⛅	🌤️	☀️	☀️	⛅	☀️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	☀️	⛅	☀️	🌧️
	mostly clear	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	some clouds	mostly clear	clear	clear	some clouds	clear	light rain	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light drizzle	cloudy	light rain	clear	some clouds	clear	drizzle
Summit323 mModeled
Temp°C	15°	18°	15°	11°	14°	13°	10°	16°	11°	10°	16°	12°	13°	17°	14°	15°	19°	15°	14°	15°	14°	16°	16°	15°	15°	15°	17°	17°
Feels like°C	13°	16°	14°	8°	12°	11°	8°	13°	9°	8°	14°	10°	11°	16°	14°	15°	18°	15°	12°	14°	13°	16°	15°	15°	16°	15°	16°	16°
Snowcm	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Precipmm	·	·	·	0.3	0.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	11.9	2.1	2.2	·	·	·	·	·	0.8	1.6	·	18.0	·	·	·	6.0
Windkm/h	17	20	14	14	11	12	12	13	8	11	15	11	14	15	12	10	15	11	15	15	14	7	17	15	6	6	19	17
Mid-mountainModeled
Temp°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Feels like°C	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Snowcm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Precipmm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Windkm/h	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Humidity%	88	71	85	74	77	77	80	61	83	88	60	84	95	77	88	90	71	87	83	79	82	84	76	88	80	77	78	81
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Great Lakes & Midwest region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area El Niño rank & forecast

Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area ranks #470 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −26% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.

#470 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter

Strong-event signal: −26% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area averaged -26% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -22%, '15-16 -9%, '23-24 -48%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −22%'15-16 −10%'23-24 −48%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Welch Village Ski and Snowboard Area, ERA5 season snowfall median was 76 cm (30 in), about 10% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

76cm

10 El Niño winters · 10% below median

All-season median

85cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	76cm	69cm – 85cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	87cm	73cm – 112cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	107cm	93cm – 118cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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