Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

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Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Opens December 11, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

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Opens Dec 11

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 31

12d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

15cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Nov 12, 9:08 PM•Weather at base: 1,561m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Opens Dec 11

Willamette Pass opens December 11, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1February83cm avg · last season 35.6
#2March79cm avg · last season 23
#3January96cm avg

Best weeks to book

#1 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 32.1
#2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 35.6
#3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 24.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

Updated Nov 12 at 9:08 PM

Snow qualityLightAverageHeavy

Freezing line

15cm

SeasonModeled

0cm

Past 10 days48H 0cm · 24H 0cm

0cm

Today

15cm

Next 6 days

Days 8–14 · Pro

SeasontotalModeled

Tue10

Wed11

14 daystotal

—

MonNov 2

Tue3

Wed4

Thu5

Fri6

Sat7

Sun8

Mon9

TODAY12

Fri13

Sat14

Sun15

Mon16

Tue17

Wed18

Thu19

Fri20

Sat21

Sun22

Mon23

Tue24

Wed25

Freezing line

Snow qualityLight· bestAverage· okayHeavy· wet, skis heavy

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro

No measurement at mid height (1,799m) reached us: past snow shown is the model's estimate at the summit.

Hourly Forecast

	12 Thu 12° / 1°			13 Fri 5° / 0°			14 Sat 5° / -1°			15 Sun 1° / -1°			16 Mon 0° / -4°			17 Tue 2° / -6°			18 Wed 1° / -6°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Thu	20 Fri	21 Sat	22 Sun	23 Mon	24 Tue	25 Wed
Conditions	☁️	⛅	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	☁️	⛅	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	⛅	☀️	☀️	☁️	☁️	❄️	☁️	☁️	☁️	☀️	☁️	❄️	☁️	❄️
	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	drizzle	light drizzle	some clouds	light drizzle	cloudy	some clouds	drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	light snow	light snow	some clouds	clear	clear	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	clear	cloudy	snow	cloudy	snow
Mid-mountain1,799 mModeled
Temp°C	5°	11°	5°	4°	2°	3°	1°	4°	1°	1°	1°	1°	-2°	0°	-3°	-3°	1°	-3°	-2°	-1°	-3°	-4°	-4°	-3°	0°	-2°	-3°	-3°
Feels like°C	1°	6°	0°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-2°	0°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-7°	-3°	-8°	-6°	-5°	-7°	-8°	-8°	-4°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.4	·	1.9	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.2	·	0.1	1.2	1.2	0.9	3.1	1.1	0.1	0.5	0.6	1.5	0.2	1.9
Precipmm	·	·	·	5.4	3.7	0.9	0.7	0.2	3.0	4.3	2.8	3.6	0.2	0.3	0.3	·	0.1	1.6	1.4	1.0	3.9	1.0	·	0.7	0.7	2.1	0.4	2.7
Windkm/h	4	12	8	15	8	14	8	15	9	5	7	6	9	11	6	2	7	6	8	7	5	8	8	2	1	2	5	9
Summit2,037 mModeled
Temp°C	4°	9°	4°	2°	0°	1°	-1°	2°	-1°	0°	0°	-1°	-3°	-2°	-4°	-4°	-1°	-5°	-4°	-3°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-4°	-2°	-3°	-5°	-5°
Feels like°C	-1°	4°	-2°	-2°	-4°	-4°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-5°	-8°	-7°	-8°	-9°	-5°	-10°	-7°	-7°	-9°	-10°	-9°	-6°	-4°	-4°	-5°	-6°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.2	2.5	0.6	0.5	·	2.1	2.9	1.9	2.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	·	0.1	1.4	1.2	0.9	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.7	1.7	0.2	2.1
Precipmm	·	·	·	5.4	3.7	0.9	0.7	0.2	3.0	4.3	2.8	3.6	0.2	0.3	0.3	·	0.1	1.6	1.4	1.0	3.9	1.0	·	0.7	0.7	2.1	0.4	2.7
Windkm/h	4	12	8	15	8	14	8	15	9	5	7	6	9	11	6	2	7	6	8	7	5	8	8	2	1	2	5	9
Base1,561 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	12°	6°	5°	3°	4°	2°	5°	2°	3°	3°	2°	0°	1°	-2°	-2°	2°	-2°	-1°	0°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-2°	1°	0°	-2°	-2°
Feels like°C	3°	7°	2°	1°	0°	-1°	-1°	2°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-4°	-3°	-5°	-6°	-2°	-6°	-4°	-3°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-3°	0°	0°	-1°	-2°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	·	1.2	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	·	·	1.1	1	0.7	2.8	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.4	0.2	1.3
Precipmm	·	·	·	5.9	3.8	0.9	0.7	0.2	3.2	4.3	2.8	3.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	·	0.1	1.6	1.4	1.0	3.9	1.1	·	0.7	0.7	2.1	0.4	2.7
Windkm/h	4	12	8	15	8	14	8	15	9	5	7	6	9	11	6	2	7	6	8	7	5	8	8	2	1	2	5	9
Humidity%	65	40	65	93	99	90	96	69	95	99	95	97	88	75	96	84	53	90	74	69	93	91	84	75	76	91	89	92
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561	≤ 1,561
Sunhours																						3	3	3.3	3	4.5	3	3.9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Willamette Pass, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Willamette Pass (cascades), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Willamette Pass El Niño rank & forecast

Willamette Pass ranks #184 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#184 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Willamette Pass averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -23%, '15-16 -8%, '23-24 +37%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −23%'15-16 −8%'23-24 +37%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Willamette Pass, ERA5 season snowfall median was 403 cm (159 in), about 14% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

ASO 2026 · ANOM +2.46°C

Analog season median

403cm

10 El Niño winters · 14% below median

All-season median

470cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	403cm	382cm – 573cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	577cm	491cm – 673cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	462cm	366cm – 557cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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