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Zao ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

Asia

Zao Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: January, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed April 26

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 22, 8:05 AM•Weather at base: 780m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Closed for the season

Zao is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: January, February, March. Best weeks: 20 Mar–25 Mar, 27 Mar–2 Apr, 3 Apr–9 Apr.Dec1Jan2Feb3MarAprOpens 5 DecCloses 26 Apr

January

#1 to book

67cm avg

February

#2 to book

45cm avg

March

#3 to book

39cm avg · scored 13.8

Best weeks to book

  1. #120 Mar – 25 Marscored 16.2
  2. #227 Mar – 2 Aprscored 9
  3. #33 Apr – 9 Aprscored 13.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,661m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 8:05 AM

0cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now22
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W23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
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M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
15° / 6°
23 Wed
14° / 6°
24 Thu
15° / 7°
25 Fri
13° / 6°
26 Sat
9° / 7°
27 Sun
14° / 5°
28 Mon
15° / 7°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions🌧️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️⛅⛅🌧️🌤️
light drizzleclearclearclearmostly clearclearlight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzlecloudylight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudysome cloudssome cloudslight drizzlemostly clear
Summit1,661 mModeled
Temp°C13°14°10°10°12°7°11°13°8°10°12°7°8°9°7°9°13°7°12°14°8°
Feels like°C12°10°9°9°11°6°11°11°6°9°12°6°7°8°6°8°11°5°11°14°7°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.4·0.2··0.21.10.49.1·1.31.91.91.41.3···0.20.60.4
Windkm/h1418841046155435554362332
Mid-mountain1,221 mModeled
Temp°C16°16°13°13°15°10°14°16°11°13°15°10°11°12°10°12°15°9°14°17°11°
Feels like°C15°14°12°12°14°9°14°15°10°12°15°9°10°11°9°12°15°9°14°17°11°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.4·0.2··0.21.10.49.1·1.31.91.91.41.3···0.20.60.4
Windkm/h1418841046155435554362332
Base780 mModeled
Temp°C19°19°16°16°18°13°17°19°14°16°18°13°14°15°13°15°18°12°17°20°14°
Feels like°C19°18°16°16°18°13°18°18°14°16°19°13°14°15°13°16°19°13°18°21°15°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.4·0.2··0.21.10.49.1·1.31.91.91.41.3···0.20.60.4
Windkm/h1418841046155435554362332
Humidity%866494757395906894797694979699867499797094
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Zao, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Zao (japan), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Japan (Tohoku & Niigata) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Zao El Niño rank & forecast

Zao ranks #209 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, 0% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#209 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: 0% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Zao averaged +0% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Zao has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -15%, '15-16 -37%, '23-24 +53%.

'97-98 −15%'15-16 −37%'23-24 +53%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Zao, ERA5 season snowfall median was 189 cm (74 in), about this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

189cm

10 El Niño winters · ≈ long-term median

All-season median

189cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10189cm182cm – 281cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12195cm153cm – 266cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8217cm140cm – 273cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Zao

How much snow is Zao getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Zao over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Zao?
The full 14-day forecast for Zao — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Zao?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.