Skip to main content
Arapahoe Basin ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier B — Favored

North America

Arapahoe Basin Snow Forecast

Last Snowfall

--

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

0cm

7-Day Forecast

1cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Sep 22, 12:02 PM•Weather at base: 3,286m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Pre-season — not open yet

Arapahoe Basin is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: April, March, February. Best weeks: 29 Mar–4 Apr, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 8 Mar–14 Mar.NovDecJan3Feb2Mar1Apr

April

#1 to book

52cm avg · scored 29.3

March

#2 to book

40cm avg · scored 28.1

February

#3 to book

32cm avg · scored 39.6

Best weeks to book

  1. #129 Mar – 4 Aprscored 27.4
  2. #21 Mar – 7 Marscored 36.7
  3. #38 Mar – 14 Marscored 30.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,978m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 12:02 PM

0cm
24h
1cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
1
Now22
—
W23
0
T24
—
F25
—
S26
—
S27
0
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
10° / -4°
23 Wed
8° / -2°
24 Thu
3° / 0°
25 Fri
8° / -1°
26 Sat
10° / -3°
27 Sun
10° / -2°
28 Mon
8° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☀️🌧️☀️☁️🌧️☁️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌤️🌧️☀️🌤️🌤️☀️⛅🌧️🌤️☁️🌧️🌧️
clearlight drizzleclearcloudylight drizzlecloudyheavy drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearlight drizzleclearmostly clearmostly clearclearsome cloudslight drizzlemostly clearcloudylight drizzlelight drizzle
Summit3,978 mModeled
Temp°C3°9°-1°3°8°0°1°2°1°1°7°1°2°9°0°4°9°1°3°7°0°
Feels like°C-1°6°-5°-1°5°-3°-3°-1°-2°-3°2°-3°-2°6°-4°0°6°-2°-1°3°-3°
Snowcm·····0.13.40.10.4···········0.3
Precipmm·1.10.40.20.60.64.92.51.9·0.30.1·0.20.1·0.3··0.51.1
Windkm/h775114713117151891298786784
Mid-mountain3,632 mModeled
Temp°C5°11°1°5°10°3°3°5°3°4°10°3°4°12°3°6°12°4°5°9°3°
Feels like°C2°8°-2°2°7°0°-1°1°0°0°5°0°0°8°-1°2°8°0°1°5°0°
Snowcm······0.30.1·············
Precipmm·1.10.40.20.60.64.92.51.9·0.30.1·0.20.1·0.3··0.51.1
Windkm/h775114713117151891298786784
Base3,286 mModeled
Temp°C7°13°3°8°12°5°5°7°5°6°12°5°7°14°5°8°14°6°7°11°5°
Feels like°C4°11°0°4°10°2°2°4°3°2°8°2°3°11°1°5°11°3°4°8°2°
Snowcm······0.30.1·············
Precipmm·1.10.40.20.60.64.92.51.9·0.30.1·0.20.1·0.3··0.51.1
Windkm/h775114713117151891298786784
Humidity%573986704386999198874183603168533162544374
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Arapahoe Basin, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Arapahoe Basin (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Arapahoe Basin El Niño rank & forecast

Arapahoe Basin ranks #151 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#151 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Arapahoe Basin averaged +5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Arapahoe Basin sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -19%, '15-16 +1%, '23-24 +33%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −19%'15-16 +1%'23-24 +33%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Arapahoe Basin, ERA5 season snowfall median was 299 cm (118 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

299cm

10 El Niño winters · 3% above median

All-season median

289cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10299cm273cm – 328cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12281cm242cm – 320cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8293cm234cm – 301cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Arapahoe Basin

How much snow is Arapahoe Basin getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Arapahoe Basin over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Arapahoe Basin?
The full 14-day forecast for Arapahoe Basin — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Arapahoe Basin?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.