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Arizona Snowbowl ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Arizona Snowbowl Snow Forecast

Closed for the season

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Pre-season — not open yet — closed April 18

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Sep 23, 6:01 AM•Weather at base: 2,774m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Pre-season — not open yet

Arizona Snowbowl is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 8 Mar–14 Mar.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 18 Apr

February

#1 to book

31cm avg · scored 18.3

January

#2 to book

29cm avg

March

#3 to book

29cm avg · scored 10.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #122 Feb – 28 Febscored 18.3
  2. #21 Mar – 7 Marscored 12.7
  3. #38 Mar – 14 Marscored 10.7

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,505m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 23, 2026 at 6:01 AM

0cm
24h
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Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now23
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T24
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F25
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S26
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S27
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M28
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T29
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

23 Wed
12° / 3°
24 Thu
11° / 3°
25 Fri
12° / 2°
26 Sat
14° / 3°
27 Sun
10° / 1°
28 Mon
12° / 1°
29 Tue
13° / 2°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☁️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☁️☁️☀️☀️🌧️☀️☀️☀️☀️
cloudylight drizzlecloudycloudydrizzlecloudyclearclearclearclearmostly clearclearcloudycloudyclearclearlight drizzleclearclearclearclear
Summit3,505 mModeled
Temp°C8°10°4°8°7°4°7°11°4°9°13°5°8°8°4°7°11°4°8°13°5°
Feels like°C6°8°1°5°4°1°5°8°1°6°10°2°4°4°0°4°6°-1°4°9°1°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.34.20.3·9.0·0.30.62.7·······1.2····
Windkm/h13347329451258135822114105
Mid-mountain3,140 mModeled
Temp°C10°13°6°10°9°6°9°14°7°12°16°8°11°10°6°10°14°6°10°15°7°
Feels like°C8°11°4°8°7°4°7°11°4°9°12°5°7°6°3°6°9°2°6°11°3°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.34.20.3·9.0·0.30.62.7·······1.2····
Windkm/h13347329451258135822114105
Base2,774 mModeled
Temp°C13°15°9°13°11°8°12°16°9°14°18°10°13°13°9°12°16°9°12°17°10°
Feels like°C11°13°7°11°10°6°10°14°7°11°15°7°10°9°6°9°11°5°9°14°6°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm0.34.20.3·9.0·0.30.62.7·······1.2····
Windkm/h13347329451258135822114105
Humidity%595383607771653867392748384457483954242033
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Arizona Snowbowl, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Arizona Snowbowl (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Arizona Snowbowl El Niño rank & forecast

Arizona Snowbowl ranks #22 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#22 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Arizona Snowbowl averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Arizona Snowbowl sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +30%, '15-16 -25%, '23-24 +46%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +30%'15-16 −25%'23-24 +46%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Arizona Snowbowl, ERA5 season snowfall median was 198 cm (78 in), about 47% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

198cm

10 El Niño winters · 47% above median

All-season median

135cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10198cm109cm – 221cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12135cm109cm – 162cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8114cm95cm – 162cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Arizona Snowbowl

How much snow is Arizona Snowbowl getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Arizona Snowbowl over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Arizona Snowbowl?
The full 14-day forecast for Arizona Snowbowl — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Arizona Snowbowl?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.