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Arizona Snowbowl ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Arizona Snowbowl Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 20, 2026

Best months to book: February, January, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

8cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 9:00 PM•Weather at base: 2,774m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 20

Arizona Snowbowl is projected to open November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, January, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 8 Mar–14 Mar.NovDec2Jan1Feb3MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 18 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February31cm avg · last season 18.3
  2. #2January29cm avg
  3. #3March29cm avg · last season 10.5

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 18.3
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 12.7
  3. #3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 10.7

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,505m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM

0cm
24h
8cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
0
Prev10d
5
Now12
2
T13
0
W14
—
T15
0
F16
—
S17
—
S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
1° / -2°
13 Tue
2° / -4°
14 Wed
2° / -8°
15 Thu
3° / -7°
16 Fri
5° / -3°
17 Sat
3° / -4°
18 Sun
6° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️🌤️🌤️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️🌧️☁️☁️🌤️☀️☀️
drizzleheavy drizzledrizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlelight drizzlemostly clearmostly clearclearclearclearclearclearcloudycloudylight drizzlecloudycloudymostly clearclearclear
Summit3,505 mModeled
Temp°C-1°0°-1°-1°1°-2°-5°1°-6°-1°3°-4°-1°4°-1°-2°1°-3°1°5°-2°
Feels like°C-6°-5°-6°-7°-5°-7°-10°-4°-10°-7°-3°-10°-7°-2°-7°-7°-3°-7°-2°2°-6°
Snowcm3.65.280.70.33.4··0.6······0.40.10.8···
Precipmm5.17.511.41.20.94.8··0.9······0.60.31.2···
Windkm/h212216232615111410192320262221158105106
Mid-mountain3,140 mModeled
Temp°C2°2°1°2°4°0°-3°3°-3°1°5°-2°2°6°2°0°4°0°4°8°0°
Feels like°C-3°-3°-3°-4°-2°-4°-7°-1°-7°-4°-1°-8°-5°1°-4°-5°0°-4°1°4°-3°
Snowcm··2.30.4·2.5··0.6······0.3·0.8···
Precipmm5.17.511.41.20.94.8··0.9······0.60.31.2···
Windkm/h212216232615111410192320262221158105106
Base2,774 mModeled
Temp°C4°5°4°4°6°3°0°5°-1°3°7°0°4°9°4°2°6°2°6°10°2°
Feels like°C-1°0°0°-1°0°-1°-4°1°-5°-2°2°-5°-2°3°-2°-2°3°-2°3°7°0°
Snowcm·····0.4··0.6······0.1·0.4···
Precipmm5.17.511.41.20.94.8··0.9······0.60.31.2···
Windkm/h212216232615111410192320262221158105106
Humidity%979298886798804689665581644265867485736390
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Arizona Snowbowl, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Arizona Snowbowl (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Arizona Snowbowl El Niño rank & forecast

Arizona Snowbowl ranks #22 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#22 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Arizona Snowbowl averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Arizona Snowbowl sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +30%, '15-16 -25%, '23-24 +46%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +30%'15-16 −25%'23-24 +46%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Arizona Snowbowl, ERA5 season snowfall median was 198 cm (78 in), about 47% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

198cm

10 El Niño winters · 47% above median

All-season median

135cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10198cm109cm – 221cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12135cm109cm – 162cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8114cm95cm – 162cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Arizona Snowbowl

How much snow is Arizona Snowbowl getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 8 cm (3 in) of snow at Arizona Snowbowl over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Arizona Snowbowl?
The full 14-day forecast for Arizona Snowbowl — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Arizona Snowbowl?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.