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Caviahue ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Caviahue Snow Forecast

74

Superb · 2026 season average

Closed for the season · average of 44 verified open days

Best months to book: August, July · last season + 30-yr record

Closed for the season — closed August 30

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

34cm

7-Day Forecast

58cm

Snow Depth

--

🎿

Powder Days

50

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

3

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 1:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,650m
SnowSure™ Score2026 season
74

Superb

2026 season average

Caviahue is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 74.2 across 44 verified open days.

Best months to book: August, July. Best weeks: 1 Aug–7 Aug, 22 Aug–28 Aug, 8 Aug–14 Aug.2Jul1AugOpened 18 JulClosed 30 Aug

August

#1 to book

134cm avg · scored 74.8

July

#2 to book

130cm avg · scored 73

Best weeks to book

  1. #11 Aug – 7 Augscored 86.6
  2. #222 Aug – 28 Augscored 74
  3. #38 Aug – 14 Augscored 73.3

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 27 Jul – 9 Aug. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,068m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 1:02 PM

34cm
24h
58cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
34
Prev10d
0
Now22
15
W23
36
T24
3
F25
1
S26
2
S27
0
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
3° / -6°
23 Wed
0° / -1°
24 Thu
-0° / -1°
25 Fri
2° / -3°
26 Sat
4° / -3°
27 Sun
4° / -1°
28 Mon
1° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions☁️☁️☁️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️🌧️❄️☁️⛅⛅⛅🌧️🌧️☁️🌧️☁️
cloudycloudycloudyheavy snowsnowheavy snowheavy snowheavy snowheavy snowsnowlight drizzlesnowcloudysome cloudssome cloudssome cloudslight drizzlelight drizzlecloudylight drizzlecloudy
Summit2,068 mModeled
Temp°C-3°3°-2°-1°0°-1°-1°-1°-1°-1°2°-1°0°3°-1°0°3°0°0°1°-1°
Feels like°C-8°-1°-7°-5°-5°-5°-5°-5°-5°-5°-2°-5°-3°1°-4°-3°1°-3°-3°-3°-4°
Snowcm··2.67.95.71717.617.326.31.70.14.1·····0.30.10.30.8
Precipmm··3.911.38.224.325.124.737.62.50.55.9·0.20.1·0.50.60.20.81.2
Windkm/h8121013171513131210151154651065108
Mid-mountain1,859 mModeled
Temp°C-2°4°-1°0°1°1°0°1°0°1°3°0°1°4°1°1°4°2°1°2°1°
Feels like°C-6°0°-5°-4°-3°-4°-4°-3°-3°-3°0°-3°-1°3°-2°-1°2°-1°-1°-1°-3°
Snowcm··0.87.94.215.717.617.326.31.70.14.1·····0.1·0.10.5
Precipmm··3.911.38.224.325.124.737.62.50.55.9·0.20.1·0.50.60.20.81.2
Windkm/h8121013171513131210151154651065108
Base1,650 mModeled
Temp°C0°5°0°2°3°2°2°2°2°2°4°2°3°6°2°3°6°3°3°4°2°
Feels like°C-5°2°-4°-2°-2°-2°-2°-2°-2°-2°1°-2°0°4°-1°0°4°0°0°1°-1°
Snowcm··0.87.74.113.217.216.725.71.30.13.7·······0.10.4
Precipmm··3.911.38.224.325.124.737.62.50.55.9·0.20.1·0.50.60.20.81.2
Windkm/h8121013171513131210151154651065108
Humidity%385866979397989598968395998195988496998897
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Caviahue, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Caviahue (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Caviahue El Niño rank & forecast

Caviahue ranks #15 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +24% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#15 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +24% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Caviahue averaged +24% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Caviahue sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -7%, '15-16 -7%, '23-24 +87%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −7%'15-16 −7%'23-24 +87%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+24%

Measured to date

+52%

Season total

709 cm

Vs predicted

+28%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Caviahue, ERA5 season snowfall median was 565 cm (222 in), about 11% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

565cm

6 El Niño winters · 11% above median

All-season median

508cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6565cm498cm – 655cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4479cm376cm – 575cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21508cm402cm – 700cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Caviahue

How much snow is Caviahue getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 58 cm (23 in) of snow at Caviahue over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Caviahue?
The full 14-day forecast for Caviahue — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Caviahue?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.