Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier B — Favored

South America

Solid · 2026 season average

Closed for the season · average of 81 verified open days

Best months to book: August, July, June · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Closed for the season — closed August 31

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

9cm

7-Day Forecast

41cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 10:01 AM•Weather at base: 1,050m

SnowSure™ Score2026 season

Solid

2026 season average

Cerro Bayo is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 38.5 across 81 verified open days.

August

#1 to book

138cm avg · scored 51

July

#2 to book

133cm avg · scored 35.9

June

#3 to book

128cm avg · scored 22.3

Best weeks to book

#128 Aug – 31 Augscored 60.8
#231 Jul – 6 Augscored 58
#37 Aug – 13 Augscored 52.6

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 25 Jul – 7 Aug. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,782m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 10:01 AM

9cm

24h

41cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

M28

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

9cm

24h

41cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

9cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

MonSep 28

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue -1° / -5°			23 Wed 2° / -3°			24 Thu 4° / -1°			25 Fri 3° / -2°			26 Sat 6° / -1°			27 Sun 5° / -4°			28 Mon 4° / -5°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon
Conditions	☁️	❄️	☁️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	☁️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	☀️	☁️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	❄️
	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	drizzle	rain	rain	drizzle	light drizzle	heavy drizzle	drizzle	light drizzle	light rain	some clouds	light drizzle	cloudy	light drizzle	some clouds	light drizzle	light drizzle	light drizzle	clear	cloudy	light snow	light drizzle	drizzle	light drizzle	snow	light snow
Summit1,782 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	-2°	-4°	-2°	0°	-1°	1°	3°	0°	-1°	2°	0°	0°	6°	0°	-2°	4°	-1°	-3°	3°	-3°	-1°	-2°	-1°	0°	-2°	-3°	-3°
Feels like°C	-7°	-6°	-8°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-3°	-2°	-4°	-5°	-2°	-4°	-3°	2°	-3°	-5°	0°	-4°	-6°	-1°	-7°	-5°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-6°	-7°	-7°
Snowcm	1	2.7	5.7	6.8	17	12.6	2.2	·	9.3	2.9	0.3	9.4	·	·	1.5	1.4	·	0.8	0.4	·	0.1	0.6	5.9	5.2	7.6	8.3	4.6	1.1
Precipmm	1.4	3.9	8.1	9.7	24.3	33.7	3.4	2.7	22.3	4.1	3.2	15.8	·	1.1	3.1	2.0	0.2	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	1.0	8.4	7.4	11.8	11.8	6.6	1.6
Windkm/h	4	8	4	7	10	8	11	15	11	10	11	7	2	10	2	3	9	4	3	8	4	8	2	4	18	18	14	12
Mid-mountain1,416 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	1°	-2°	1°	2°	2°	3°	5°	3°	1°	4°	2°	2°	8°	2°	1°	6°	1°	0°	5°	-1°	1°	1°	2°	2°	1°	-1°	-1°
Feels like°C	-4°	-3°	-5°	-2°	-1°	-2°	-1°	1°	-1°	-2°	1°	-1°	0°	5°	0°	-2°	3°	-1°	-3°	1°	-4°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-5°	-5°
Snowcm	1	2.7	5.7	1.5	0.4	2.9	·	·	0.8	0.8	·	0.1	·	·	·	1.1	·	0.3	0.4	·	0.1	0.4	2.8	0.7	5.7	7	4.4	0.9
Precipmm	1.4	3.9	8.1	9.7	24.3	33.7	3.4	2.7	22.3	4.1	3.2	15.8	·	1.1	3.1	2.0	0.2	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	1.0	8.4	7.4	11.8	11.8	6.6	1.6
Windkm/h	4	8	4	7	10	8	11	15	11	10	11	7	2	10	2	3	9	4	3	8	4	8	2	4	18	18	14	12
Base1,050 mModeled
Temp°C	1°	3°	1°	3°	5°	4°	5°	8°	5°	4°	7°	4°	5°	10°	5°	3°	9°	4°	2°	7°	1°	3°	3°	4°	5°	3°	2°	2°
Feels like°C	-2°	0°	-2°	0°	2°	1°	2°	4°	2°	1°	4°	2°	3°	7°	3°	1°	6°	1°	0°	4°	-1°	1°	1°	2°	2°	-1°	-2°	-2°
Snowcm	0.8	0.8	2.2	·	0.4	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	1.7	·	1.5	2.6	3.8	0.7
Precipmm	1.4	3.9	8.1	9.7	24.3	33.7	3.4	2.7	22.3	4.1	3.2	15.8	·	1.1	3.1	2.0	0.2	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	1.0	8.4	7.4	11.8	11.8	6.6	1.6
Windkm/h	4	8	4	7	10	8	11	15	11	10	11	7	2	10	2	3	9	4	3	8	4	8	2	4	18	18	14	12
Humidity%	87	81	96	92	86	92	87	70	88	88	75	89	89	60	90	96	57	85	93	58	90	77	88	87	81	83	83	77
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1,648	1,550	1,650	1,525	1,240	1,265	1,425
Sunhours																						8	0	0	9	9	7.5	8.5

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Bayo, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Bayo (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Bayo El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Bayo ranks #162 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +4% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#162 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +4% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Bayo averaged +4% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -10%, '15-16 +7%, '23-24 +14%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −10%'15-16 +7%'23-24 +14%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+4%

Measured to date

−39%

Season total

276 cm

Vs predicted

−43%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Cerro Bayo, ERA5 season snowfall median was 614 cm (242 in), about 9% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

614cm

6 El Niño winters · 9% above median

All-season median

563cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	614cm	521cm – 663cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	541cm	484cm – 584cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	557cm	477cm – 606cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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