Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Excellent

↗improving

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Sep 20

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

9cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

9cm

Past 10 Days

11cm

7-Day Forecast

70cm

Snow Depth

80cm

Resort reported

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 12:02 AM•Weather at base: 1,030m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Excellent

↑improving

Exceptional season - 376cm already this season!

Cerro Catedral is currently experiencing overcast conditions with a temperature of -7°C and a snow depth of 80cm. The resort has received 9cm of new snow in the past week, contributing to a season total of 376cm, which is 95% of the 5-year average for this time of year.

AI-generated summary

✓

Depth

80cm depth — good coverage on most runs.

↓

Recent

In the last 7 days, the resort has seen 9cm of snowfall.

✓

Forecast

70cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

So far this season, snowfall is at 95% of the 5-year average for this date, which is 396cm.

Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 12:02 AM UTC

Snow Summary

2,180m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 12:02 AM

11cm

24h

70cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now21

T22

W23

T24

F25

S26

S27

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

11cm

24h

70cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

11cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 21

TueSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	21 Mon -4° / -9°			22 Tue -2° / -10°			23 Wed -2° / -5°			24 Thu 0° / -5°			25 Fri -2° / -5°			26 Sat 1° / -6°			27 Sun 0° / -7°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	28 Mon	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat
Conditions	☁️	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	☁️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	🌧️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	🌧️	☁️	☁️	⛅	☁️	🌧️
	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	light snow	cloudy	drizzle	snow	heavy snow	light snow	drizzle	heavy snow	snow	light snow	light drizzle	drizzle	drizzle	light drizzle	light snow	light drizzle	light snow	light drizzle	cloudy	cloudy	some clouds	cloudy	light drizzle
Summit2,180 mModeled
Temp°C	-8°	-5°	-8°	-7°	-3°	-7°	-3°	-3°	-4°	-2°	-1°	-4°	-4°	-3°	-5°	-3°	0°	-4°	-5°	0°	-5°	-6°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-3°
Feels like°C	-12°	-10°	-12°	-11°	-6°	-10°	-6°	-6°	-8°	-6°	-4°	-7°	-8°	-7°	-8°	-6°	-3°	-7°	-8°	-4°	-9°	-9°	-8°	-8°	-9°	-11°	-6°
Snowcm	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.6	3.4	11.5	22.7	5.4	3.1	21.9	1.3	0.6	3.7	2.2	1.4	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.6	0.4	·	0.9	·	·	0.7
Precipmm	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.8	4.8	16.4	32.4	7.7	4.4	31.3	1.9	0.8	5.3	3.2	2.0	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	·	1.2	·	·	1.0
Windkm/h	10	14	10	1	3	1	1	5	3	3	7	3	7	8	4	3	5	1	2	5	1	3	7	6	11	17	5
Mid-mountain1,605 mModeled
Temp°C	-4°	-1°	-4°	-4°	1°	-3°	1°	1°	-1°	1°	3°	0°	-1°	1°	-1°	1°	4°	0°	-1°	3°	-2°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-1°	1°
Feels like°C	-8°	-6°	-8°	-7°	-2°	-6°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-1°	0°	-3°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-2°	1°	-3°	-4°	0°	-4°	-4°	-4°	-4°	-5°	-6°	-2°
Snowcm	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.6	1.1	10.6	22.7	3.6	0.4	21.9	1.3	0.4	3.7	1.5	·	0.6	0.6	·	0.6	0.2	·	0.7	·	·	0.4
Precipmm	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.8	4.8	16.4	32.4	7.7	4.4	31.3	1.9	0.8	5.3	3.2	2.0	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	·	1.2	·	·	1.0
Windkm/h	10	14	10	1	3	1	1	5	3	3	7	3	7	8	4	3	5	1	2	5	1	3	7	6	11	17	5
Base1,030 mModeled
Temp°C	0°	3°	0°	0°	4°	1°	4°	4°	3°	5°	7°	3°	3°	5°	3°	4°	8°	3°	3°	7°	2°	2°	3°	3°	2°	2°	5°
Feels like°C	-4°	-2°	-4°	-3°	2°	-2°	3°	2°	1°	3°	4°	1°	0°	2°	1°	3°	5°	2°	1°	5°	0°	-0°	0°	0°	-1°	-2°	2°
Snowcm	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	5.2	13.4	0.3	0.4	10.4	1.3	0.4	3.3	·	·	0.1	0.3	·	0.6	0.1	·	0.4	·	·	·
Precipmm	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.8	4.8	16.4	32.4	7.7	4.4	31.3	1.9	0.8	5.3	3.2	2.0	0.8	1.0	0.4	0.8	0.6	·	1.2	·	·	1.0
Windkm/h	10	14	10	1	3	1	1	5	3	3	7	3	7	8	4	3	5	1	2	5	1	3	7	6	11	17	5
Humidity%	92	70	91	83	76	95	93	96	98	89	76	98	94	82	97	95	74	91	96	72	90	85	84	83	79	81	83
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Cerro Catedral, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Cerro Catedral (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Cerro Catedral El Niño rank & forecast

Cerro Catedral ranks #88 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +9% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#88 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +9% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Cerro Catedral averaged +9% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, Cerro Catedral sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -24%, '15-16 +1%, '23-24 +51%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −24%'15-16 +1%'23-24 +51%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+9%

Measured to date

−5%

Season total

376 cm

Vs predicted

−15%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Cerro Catedral, ERA5 season snowfall median was 490 cm (193 in), about 2% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

490cm

6 El Niño winters · 2% above median

All-season median

481cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	490cm	395cm – 514cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	457cm	394cm – 523cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	481cm	436cm – 567cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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