Name: SnowSure MCP Server
Author: SnowSure

Tier B — Favored

South America

Excellent · 2026 season average

Closed for the season · average of 51 verified open days

Best months to book: August, July · last season + 30-yr record

Scroll for happiness

Closed for the season — closed August 30

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Sep 20

today

Past 24 Hours

6cm

Reported by Chapelco

Past 48 Hours

7cm

Past 10 Days

8cm

7-Day Forecast

44cm

Snow Depth

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 20, 3:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,250m

SnowSure™ Score2026 season

Excellent

2026 season average

Chapelco is closed for the season. Last season it averaged 50.4 across 51 verified open days.

August

#1 to book

94cm avg · scored 55.2

July

#2 to book

95cm avg · scored 43.6

Best weeks to book

#11 Aug – 7 Augscored 62.6
#28 Aug – 14 Augscored 58.9
#322 Aug – 28 Augscored 52.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. Last season's strongest fortnight was 28 Jul – 10 Aug. One season describes what happened, not what to expect. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

1,980m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 20, 2026 at 3:01 PM

8cm

24h

44cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now20

M21

T22

W23

T24

F25

—

S26

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

8cm

24h

44cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

8cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 20

MonSep 21

TueSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

—

SatSep 26

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

Unlock with Pro

Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	20 Sun -2° / -6°			21 Mon -2° / -7°			22 Tue -1° / -6°			23 Wed 0° / -3°			24 Thu 2° / -2°			25 Fri -1° / -3°			26 Sat 2° / -3°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	27 Sun	28 Mon	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat
Conditions	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	☁️	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	🌧️	☁️	❄️	☁️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	☀️	☀️
	heavy snow	snow	snow	light snow	light snow	light snow	cloudy	cloudy	cloudy	heavy snow	heavy snow	snow	snow	light drizzle	heavy snow	snow	light snow	light snow	light drizzle	light drizzle	cloudy	snow	cloudy	snow	light snow	light drizzle	clear	clear
Summit1,980 mModeled
Temp°C	-3°	-4°	-4°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-1°	1°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-2°	0°	1°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-4°	-4°	-6°	-4°	-2°
Feels like°C	-9°	-11°	-9°	-12°	-8°	-11°	-8°	-6°	-9°	-7°	-6°	-7°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-7°	-7°	-7°	-4°	-3°	-7°	-7°	-7°	-8°	-9°	-11°	-8°	-4°
Snowcm	5.2	3.5	3.5	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	8	9.6	12.7	10.1	0.6	22.2	5.4	1.5	1.7	1.7	0.4	1.1	2.6	·	3.4	0.4	0.4	·	·
Precipmm	7.4	5.0	5.0	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.6	11.4	13.7	18.2	14.4	2.5	31.7	7.7	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.0	1.6	3.6	·	4.8	0.6	0.6	·	·
Windkm/h	25	30	20	15	17	14	7	12	8	16	15	17	16	19	14	16	19	15	11	17	16	16	6	12	18	15	8	6
Mid-mountain1,615 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	-1°	-1°	-4°	-1°	-4°	-2°	1°	-2°	0°	1°	0°	1°	4°	1°	0°	1°	0°	2°	4°	0°	0°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-2°	1°
Feels like°C	-6°	-8°	-6°	-9°	-6°	-8°	-6°	-4°	-6°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-1°	-1°	-4°	-5°	-4°	-5°	-6°	-8°	-5°	-2°
Snowcm	5.2	3.5	3.5	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	8	9.1	11.3	7	0.1	22.1	5.4	1.5	1.7	·	·	0.6	2.6	·	3.4	0.4	0.4	·	·
Precipmm	7.4	5.0	5.0	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.6	11.4	13.7	18.2	14.4	2.5	31.7	7.7	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.0	1.6	3.6	·	4.8	0.6	0.6	·	·
Windkm/h	25	30	20	15	17	14	7	12	8	16	15	17	16	19	14	16	19	15	11	17	16	16	6	12	18	15	8	6
Base1,250 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	1°	1°	-2°	2°	-1°	0°	3°	0°	2°	3°	3°	4°	6°	3°	2°	3°	2°	5°	6°	2°	2°	1°	1°	1°	-1°	1°	3°
Feels like°C	-4°	-5°	-4°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-3°	-1°	-3°	-2°	-1°	-2°	0°	2°	-1°	-2°	-2°	-2°	2°	2°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-3°	-4°	-6°	-2°	1°
Snowcm	5	3.4	2.4	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	7.1	7.6	7.1	5.1	0.1	16.5	4.8	1.3	0.7	·	·	·	2.6	·	3	0.4	0.4	·	·
Precipmm	7.4	5.0	5.0	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.6	11.4	13.7	18.2	14.4	2.5	31.7	7.7	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.0	1.6	3.6	·	4.8	0.6	0.6	·	·
Windkm/h	25	30	20	15	17	14	7	12	8	16	15	17	16	19	14	16	19	15	11	17	16	16	6	12	18	15	8	6
Humidity%	98	90	97	94	71	95	80	78	96	98	97	99	96	76	96	98	87	98	94	81	97	89	79	92	82	88	76	68
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Chapelco, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Chapelco (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Chapelco El Niño rank & forecast

Chapelco ranks #121 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.

#121 of 488Tier B — Favored

Strong-event signal: +7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Chapelco averaged +7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -6%, '15-16 +7%, '23-24 +20%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −6%'15-16 +7%'23-24 +20%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+7%

Measured to date

−19%

Season total

265 cm

Vs predicted

−26%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Chapelco, ERA5 season snowfall median was 420 cm (165 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

420cm

6 El Niño winters · 3% above median

All-season median

408cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	420cm	379cm – 429cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	398cm	356cm – 422cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	408cm	356cm – 448cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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