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Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Projected to open November 25, 2026

Best months to book: April, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

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Projected to open Nov 25

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 12

today

Past 24 Hours

2cm

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

3cm

7-Day Forecast

20cm

Snow Depth

Updated: Oct 12, 11:01 PM•Weather at base: 2,856m

SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season

Projected to open Nov 25

Crested Butte is projected to open November 25, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book

#1April48cm avg · last season 46.6
#2February50cm avg · last season 41.1
#3March50cm avg · last season 27.1

Best weeks to book

#1 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 41.3
#2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 35.1
#3 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 41.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,707m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:01 PM

3cm

24h

20cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now12

T13

W14

T15

—

F16

—

S17

—

S18

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

3cm

24h

20cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

3cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYOct 12

TueOct 13

WedOct 14

ThuOct 15

—

FriOct 16

—

SatOct 17

—

SunOct 18

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	12 Mon 4° / -2°			13 Tue 0° / -4°			14 Wed 0° / -7°			15 Thu -2° / -9°			16 Fri 3° / -11°			17 Sat 3° / -10°			18 Sun 1° / -8°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	19 Mon	20 Tue	21 Wed	22 Thu	23 Fri	24 Sat	25 Sun
Conditions	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌧️	☁️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	⛅	🌤️	☀️	🌧️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☁️	❄️
	light snow	light snow	light snow	snow	snow	light snow	snow	snow	light snow	light drizzle	cloudy	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	some clouds	mostly clear	clear	light drizzle	snow	snow	light snow	cloudy	light snow
Summit3,707 mModeled
Temp°C	-1°	4°	-1°	-3°	0°	-2°	-2°	-2°	-4°	-5°	-2°	-7°	-7°	1°	-8°	-5°	2°	-7°	-5°	0°	-6°	-2°	-0°	0°	-4°	-9°	-8°	-7°
Feels like°C	-5°	-1°	-5°	-6°	-3°	-6°	-6°	-6°	-8°	-9°	-6°	-11°	-12°	-2°	-12°	-9°	-1°	-10°	-9°	-3°	-9°	-5°	-4°	-4°	-8°	-13°	-13°	-11°
Snowcm	1.1	0.5	1.8	2.9	2.4	5.4	1.5	4.3	1.6	0.6	·	4.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.8	3.9	6.8	2.1	0.1	0.5
Precipmm	1.6	1.3	2.7	4.2	3.4	7.7	2.1	6.1	2.3	0.9	·	5.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.6	6.6	9.7	3.0	0.1	0.6
Windkm/h	8	17	9	6	3	7	13	12	6	8	8	6	5	8	3	1	4	1	5	6	2	2	11	16	12	9	8	5
Mid-mountain3,282 mModeled
Temp°C	2°	6°	2°	0°	2°	0°	1°	1°	-2°	-2°	0°	-4°	-5°	4°	-6°	-2°	4°	-4°	-2°	3°	-3°	1°	2°	3°	-1°	-6°	-6°	-5°
Feels like°C	-2°	2°	-1°	-3°	0°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-5°	-6°	-3°	-7°	-9°	0°	-9°	-6°	2°	-7°	-5°	0°	-6°	-2°	-1°	-1°	-5°	-10°	-10°	-8°
Snowcm	1	0.5	1.1	2.9	2.3	5	1.5	4.1	1.6	0.6	·	4.1	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2.5	3.3	6.6	2.1	0.1	0.5
Precipmm	1.6	1.3	2.7	4.2	3.4	7.7	2.1	6.1	2.3	0.9	·	5.9	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	4.6	6.6	9.7	3.0	0.1	0.6
Windkm/h	8	17	9	6	3	7	13	12	6	8	8	6	5	8	3	1	4	1	5	6	2	2	11	16	12	9	8	5
Base2,856 mModeled
Temp°C	6°	12°	6°	3°	8°	4°	4°	5°	1°	0°	7°	0°	-1°	9°	-1°	2°	10°	-1°	2°	8°	0°	5°	6°	7°	4°	-2°	0°	-1°
Feels like°C	3°	8°	4°	1°	6°	2°	1°	2°	-2°	-3°	2°	-2°	-5°	5°	-4°	-2°	8°	-4°	-1°	6°	-3°	2°	3°	4°	0°	-5°	-3°	-4°
Snowcm	·	·	·	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.1	1.2	0.1	·	1.4	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	1.7	1.6	0.1	1.6
Precipmm	·	1.2	1.7	4.4	1.9	4.0	2.3	6.1	2.4	0.2	·	2.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	0.5	0.1	·	2.1	4.2	6.8	2.3	0.2	1.7
Windkm/h	5	9	2	3	3	2	7	9	2	5	11	3	3	11	2	3	4	4	2	3	4	5	11	17	10	7	4	4
Humidity%	93	63	93	95	85	97	95	88	96	91	78	94	31	30	56	40	51	56	90	78	87	70	75	87	90	92	73	73
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3,550	3,600	3,600	2,400	2,250	2,950	3,200
Sunhours																						9.5	9.2	9.2	6.7	6.1	9	9

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Crested Butte, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Crested Butte (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Crested Butte El Niño rank & forecast

Crested Butte ranks #179 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +3% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#179 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Crested Butte averaged +3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. El Niño has historically made little difference here — this is an ENSO-proof mountain, for winter 2026-27 as in past events. Analog winters: '97-98 -13%, '15-16 -11%, '23-24 +33%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −13%'15-16 −11%'23-24 +33%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Crested Butte, ERA5 season snowfall median was 306 cm (120 in), about 9% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

306cm

10 El Niño winters · 9% below median

All-season median

336cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	10	306cm	300cm – 339cm	2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña	12	337cm	298cm – 390cm	2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral	8	345cm	287cm – 391cm	2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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