El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
La Hoya El Niño rank & forecast
La Hoya ranks #176 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier B, +3% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier B — Favored: Modest El Niño upside (+3% to +8% vs normal). Often a solid pick, without the biggest Andes-style swings.
Strong-event signal: +3% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), La Hoya averaged +3% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically leaned mildly in this resort's favor for winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -39%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 +64%. A pattern, not a promise.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
+3%
Measured to date
−3%
Season total
155 cm
Vs predicted
−6%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.




















