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La Parva ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

La Parva Snow Forecast

64

Superb

↗improving

Last Snowfall

Sep 20

2d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

26cm

7-Day Forecast

20cm

Snow Depth

90cm

Resort reported
🎿

Powder Days

35

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

5

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 10:02 AM•Weather at base: 2,653m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
64
Superb
↑improving

Exceptional season - 395cm already this season!

La Parva currently has a solid snow depth of 90cm and mainly clear skies with a temperature of -5°C. In the past week, 7cm of new snow has fallen, contributing to a season total of 395cm, which is 141% of the 5-year average for this date.

AI-generated summary
✓

Depth

90cm depth — good coverage on most runs.

↓

Recent

There has been 7cm of snowfall in the last week, with no new snow in the past 24 or 48 hours.

✓

Forecast

20cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

So far this season, La Parva has recorded 395cm of snow, compared to a 5-year average of 280cm at this point.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 10:02 AM UTC

Snow Summary

3,574m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 10:02 AM

26cm
24h
20cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
26
Prev10d
0
Now22
3
W23
4
T24
5
F25
5
S26
1
S27
2
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

22 Tue
1° / -5°
23 Wed
-0° / -3°
24 Thu
1° / -4°
25 Fri
-0° / -4°
26 Sat
2° / -3°
27 Sun
2° / -5°
28 Mon
-1° / -9°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon
Conditions🌤️☀️⛅❄️❄️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️🌤️❄️❄️⛅
mostly clearclearsome cloudslight snowlight snowcloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudycloudyclearclearclearclearmostly clearmostly clearlight snowsnowsome clouds
Summit3,574 mModeled
Temp°C-4°1°-2°-2°0°-2°-3°0°-2°-3°0°-2°0°2°-1°-2°1°-3°-2°-3°-4°
Feels like°C-8°0°-6°-6°-4°-6°-7°-4°-7°-7°-4°-6°-4°0°-5°-7°-1°-7°-5°-7°-8°
Snowcm···0.30.50.5····0.10.3······1.73.51.5
Precipmm···0.40.70.7····0.20.4······2.45.02.2
Windkm/h746666101310779647747475
Mid-mountain3,114 mModeled
Temp°C-1°4°1°1°3°1°0°3°1°0°3°1°3°5°2°1°4°0°1°0°-1°
Feels like°C-4°3°-3°-3°-1°-3°-4°-1°-4°-4°0°-3°-1°4°-2°-3°3°-4°-2°-4°-4°
Snowcm···0.30.50.5····0.10.3······1.73.51.5
Precipmm···0.40.70.7····0.20.4······2.45.02.2
Windkm/h746666101310779647747475
Base2,653 mModeled
Temp°C2°5°3°3°3°2°1°3°1°1°4°1°4°7°2°1°5°1°1°1°0°
Feels like°C-2°3°-1°-1°0°-2°-2°1°-2°-2°2°-2°0°5°-1°-3°3°-3°-2°-1°-3°
Snowcm····0.11··0.50.3·0.6······0.41.84.2
Precipmm··0.80.51.91.5··0.70.4·0.8····0.20.12.45.26.4
Windkm/h645546334636636636424
Humidity%635862726765634659616464424751495558757771
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for La Parva, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For La Parva (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

La Parva El Niño rank & forecast

La Parva ranks #4 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +60% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#4 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +60% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), La Parva averaged +60% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026, La Parva sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +102%, '15-16 +29%, '23-24 +50%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +102%'15-16 +29%'23-24 +50%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+60%

Measured to date

+36%

Season total

395 cm

Vs predicted

−24%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at La Parva, ERA5 season snowfall median was 507 cm (200 in), about 54% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

507cm

6 El Niño winters · 54% above median

All-season median

330cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6507cm458cm – 516cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4286cm235cm – 319cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21290cm258cm – 360cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about La Parva

How much snow is La Parva getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 20 cm (8 in) of snow at La Parva over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for La Parva?
The full 14-day forecast for La Parva — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for La Parva?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.