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Mt. Bachelor ski resort
Ikon PassView resorts
Tier C — ENSO-proof

North America

Mt. Bachelor Snow Forecast

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 11:01 PM•Weather at base: 1,737m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 22

Mt. Bachelor is projected to open November 22, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 1 Mar–7 Mar, 22 Feb–28 Feb, 8 Mar–14 Mar.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprMayOpens 22 NovCloses 25 May

Best months to book

  1. #1February85cm avg · last season 46.9
  2. #2March79cm avg · last season 32.3
  3. #3January104cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 41.9
  2. #2 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 46.9
  3. #3 8 Mar – 14 Mar · last season 36.1

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,763m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:01 PM

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Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
-1° / -10°
13 Tue
5° / -8°
14 Wed
8° / -3°
15 Thu
10° / -3°
16 Fri
12° / 0°
17 Sat
8° / -1°
18 Sun
7° / -1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions⛅☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️⛅☀️☀️☀️☀️
some cloudsclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearmostly clearsome cloudsclearclearclearclear
Summit2,763 mModeled
Temp°C-6°-1°-8°-2°5°-4°1°8°-1°2°9°1°3°11°3°2°7°1°3°6°1°
Feels like°C-11°-6°-13°-6°1°-8°-2°5°-5°-2°5°-3°-1°8°-1°-1°4°-2°-1°3°-2°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h885263344101596755102672
Mid-mountain2,250 mModeled
Temp°C-3°2°-5°1°8°-1°5°11°2°5°13°4°7°15°6°6°11°5°6°10°4°
Feels like°C-7°-2°-9°-2°5°-4°2°8°-1°1°8°0°3°11°3°3°7°2°3°6°2°
Snowcm·····················
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Windkm/h885263344101596755102672
Base1,737 mModeled
Temp°C0°5°-2°4°11°2°8°15°6°9°16°7°10°18°10°9°14°8°10°13°8°
Feels like°C-4°1°-5°1°8°-1°6°12°3°5°12°4°7°15°7°6°11°6°7°10°5°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm·····················
Windkm/h885263344101596755102672
Humidity%724486553672613971533359462750564863565167
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt. Bachelor, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt. Bachelor (cascades), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Pacific Northwest & BC region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Mt. Bachelor El Niño rank & forecast

Mt. Bachelor ranks #189 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier C, +2% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier C — ENSO-proof: Strong El Niño winters looked like a normal year here — within about ±3% of this resort’s own 30-year snowfall average. Not a jackpot, not a bust: a hedge if you’re planning around El Niño.

#189 of 488Tier C — ENSO-proof

Strong-event signal: +2% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt. Bachelor averaged +2% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — effectively ENSO-proof. Mt. Bachelor has held within a few percent of normal across every phase of the Pacific cycle, making it one of the safest bets of a record El Niño winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 -20%, '15-16 -15%, '23-24 +40%.

'97-98 −20%'15-16 −15%'23-24 +40%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Mt. Bachelor, ERA5 season snowfall median was 465 cm (183 in), about 14% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

465cm

10 El Niño winters · 14% below median

All-season median

542cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10465cm434cm – 575cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12624cm570cm – 687cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8518cm437cm – 611cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Mt. Bachelor

How much snow is Mt. Bachelor getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Mt. Bachelor over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Mt. Bachelor?
The full 14-day forecast for Mt. Bachelor — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Mt. Bachelor?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.