Oceania
Closed for the season
Best months to book: August, July, September · last season + 30-yr record
Scroll for happiness
Not operating today
Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.
Last Snowfall
Sep 16
4d agoPast 24 Hours
0cm
Reported by Mt Baw BawPast 48 Hours
0cm
Past 10 Days
3cm
7-Day Forecast
1cm
Snow Depth
--
Powder Days
2
2026 season
Mt Baw Baw is closed for the season. Here is when it is usually best to book.
August
#1 to book
9cm avg · scored 13.8
July
#2 to book
6cm avg · scored 16.1
September
#3 to book
5cm avg · scored 12.3
Best weeks to book
Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2026) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.
Depth
Resort closed — no current ski-base depth.
Recent
In the past week, 3cm of light snow has been recorded.
Forecast
Light snow possible this week.
Historic
Season-to-date snowfall is tracking below typical for this point in the season compared to the 5-year average of 39cm.
Not operating today · Data updated Sun, Sep 20, 05:03 PM UTC · informational only
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.
Unlock with ProHistorical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend
21 Mon 6° / -4° | 22 Tue 10° / -6° | 23 Wed 14° / -2° | 24 Thu 17° / 3° | 25 Fri 18° / 7° | 26 Sat 15° / 2° | 27 Sun 14° / 2° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 28 Mon | 29 Tue | 30 Wed | 1 Thu | 2 Fri | 3 Sat | 4 Sun | |
| Conditions | 🌧️ | ⛅ | 🌧️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | 🌤️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | 🌤️ | ⛅ | ⛅ | ☁️ | 🌤️ | ⛅ | ☁️ | ☁️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | |||||||
| light drizzle | some clouds | light drizzle | some clouds | some clouds | mostly clear | clear | mostly clear | some clouds | some clouds | mostly clear | some clouds | some clouds | cloudy | mostly clear | some clouds | cloudy | cloudy | cloudy | light drizzle | cloudy | ||||||||
| Summit1,564 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 0° | 2° | 0° | 0° | 8° | -3° | 5° | 12° | 1° | 9° | 16° | 6° | 12° | 17° | 8° | 12° | 10° | 6° | 4° | 12° | 5° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -4° | -3° | -3° | -3° | 5° | -6° | 2° | 11° | -2° | 6° | 13° | 3° | 10° | 14° | 6° | 10° | 7° | 3° | 1° | 10° | 2° | |||||||
| Snowcm | 1 | · | 0.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | · | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 14 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain1,507 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 1° | 2° | 1° | 1° | 9° | -3° | 5° | 13° | 1° | 10° | 16° | 6° | 13° | 17° | 8° | 12° | 10° | 6° | 4° | 12° | 5° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -4° | -2° | -3° | -3° | 6° | -6° | 2° | 11° | -1° | 6° | 13° | 4° | 11° | 15° | 6° | 11° | 8° | 3° | 1° | 11° | 2° | |||||||
| Snowcm | 0.9 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | · | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 14 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | |||||||
| Base1,450 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 1° | 3° | 1° | 1° | 9° | -2° | 5° | 13° | 1° | 10° | 16° | 7° | 13° | 17° | 9° | 13° | 10° | 6° | 5° | 12° | 5° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -3° | -2° | -3° | -2° | 6° | -5° | 3° | 12° | -1° | 7° | 14° | 4° | 11° | 15° | 7° | 11° | 8° | 4° | 2° | 11° | 3° | |||||||
| Snowcm | 0.7 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |||||||
| Precipmm | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 0.6 | · | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 14 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 92 | 61 | 90 | 74 | 48 | 96 | 71 | 50 | 94 | 63 | 47 | 87 | 69 | 48 | 90 | 71 | 84 | 89 | 90 | 63 | 91 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
Every model for Mt Baw Baw, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Mt Baw Baw (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →Australia & Tasmania region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Mt Baw Baw is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 6 past El Niño winters at Mt Baw Baw, ERA5 season snowfall median was 11 cm (4 in), about 8% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
11cm
6 El Niño winters · 8% below median
All-season median
12cm
Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 6 | 11cm | 10cm – 14cm | 2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 17cm | 13cm – 26cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 12cm | 9cm – 50cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
