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Author: SnowSure

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Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Oceania

Excellent

→stable

Scroll for happiness

Last Snowfall

Sep 22

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

12cm

7-Day Forecast

26cm

Snow Depth

129cm

Resort reported

🎿

Powder Days

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 2:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,500m

SnowSure™ ScoreAI

Excellent

→stable

Excellent snow depth - conditions are locked in.

Current conditions at Mt Hutt show a solid snow depth of 129cm with moderate snowfall contributing 8cm over the past week. With a 14-day forecast predicting between 30cm and 40cm of new snow, skiers can look forward to improving conditions in the coming days.

AI-generated summary

✓

Depth

129cm depth — excellent coverage.

↓

Recent

In the last week, the resort received 8cm of new snow, with only 1cm falling in the past 48 hours.

↓

Forecast

26cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

This season-to-date's snow total of 298cm is 186% of the 5-year average of 160cm.

Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 02:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

2,086m

ECMWF GFS GEM JMA ICON Météo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 2:04 PM

12cm

24h

26cm

Past 10d

7-Day Forecast

Prev10d

Now21

T22

W23

T24

F25

—

S26

S27

Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro

Past

Today

Forecast

12cm

24h

26cm

Pro

Past 10 Days

7-Day Forecast

Days 8–14

12cm

Previous10 Days

TODAYSep 21

TueSep 22

WedSep 23

ThuSep 24

FriSep 25

—

SatSep 26

SunSep 27

Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.

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Previous 10 Days

Today / High Snow

7-Day Forecast

Weekend

Historical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend

Hourly Forecast

	22 Tue 1° / -7°			23 Wed -5° / -10°			24 Thu 1° / -9°			25 Fri -0° / -7°			26 Sat 2° / -8°			27 Sun -1° / -11°			28 Mon -4° / -11°			Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	AM	PM	Night	29 Tue	30 Wed	1 Thu	2 Fri	3 Sat	4 Sun	5 Mon
Conditions	❄️	☀️	❄️	❄️	❄️	☀️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌤️	🌧️	🌤️	⛅	⛅	☁️	❄️	❄️	❄️	🌤️	☀️	☀️	☀️	🌧️	🌧️	⛅	🌧️	☁️	❄️
	snow	clear	snow	light snow	light snow	clear	clear	clear	clear	mostly clear	drizzle	mostly clear	some clouds	some clouds	cloudy	light snow	snow	heavy snow	mostly clear	clear	clear	clear	light drizzle	light drizzle	some clouds	light drizzle	cloudy	snow
Summit2,086 mModeled
Temp°C	-6°	0°	-5°	-8°	-6°	-9°	-5°	0°	-7°	-4°	-2°	-6°	-3°	2°	-4°	-8°	-7°	-8°	-6°	-4°	-8°	-3°	-1°	-1°	-2°	-4°	-6°	-6°
Feels like°C	-9°	-4°	-9°	-12°	-10°	-12°	-9°	-2°	-10°	-7°	-5°	-9°	-8°	-3°	-9°	-12°	-11°	-12°	-10°	-7°	-12°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-5°	-7°	-10°	-10°
Snowcm	1.6	·	5.6	0.2	0.3	1.5	·	·	·	·	1.2	0.1	·	·	2.2	2	1.6	8.7	·	·	·	·	0.5	0.4	·	0.5	·	7.8
Precipmm	2.3	·	8.0	0.3	0.4	2.1	·	·	·	·	1.7	0.1	·	·	3.2	2.8	2.3	12.4	·	·	·	·	1.1	0.7	·	0.6	·	11.2
Windkm/h	3	10	6	5	7	2	4	2	3	2	5	2	8	12	10	8	8	6	8	2	6	3	13	11	5	7	10	4
Mid-mountain1,793 mModeled
Temp°C	-4°	2°	-3°	-6°	-4°	-7°	-3°	2°	-5°	-2°	0°	-4°	-2°	3°	-2°	-6°	-5°	-6°	-4°	-2°	-6°	-1°	1°	1°	0°	-2°	-4°	-4°
Feels like°C	-7°	-2°	-7°	-10°	-8°	-10°	-7°	0°	-8°	-5°	-3°	-7°	-5°	-1°	-7°	-10°	-9°	-10°	-8°	-5°	-10°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-3°	-5°	-8°	-7°
Snowcm	1.6	·	5.5	0.2	0.3	1.5	·	·	·	·	0.8	0.1	·	·	1.3	2	1.6	7.8	·	·	·	·	0.4	0.3	·	0.2	·	7.8
Precipmm	2.3	·	8.0	0.3	0.4	2.1	·	·	·	·	1.7	0.1	·	·	3.2	2.8	2.3	12.4	·	·	·	·	1.1	0.7	·	0.6	·	11.2
Windkm/h	3	10	6	5	7	2	4	2	3	2	5	2	8	12	10	8	8	6	8	2	6	3	13	11	5	7	10	4
Base1,500 mModeled
Temp°C	-2°	3°	-1°	-4°	-2°	-5°	-1°	4°	-3°	0°	2°	-2°	0°	5°	-1°	-4°	-3°	-4°	-2°	0°	-4°	1°	3°	3°	2°	0°	-2°	-2°
Feels like°C	-5°	0°	-5°	-8°	-5°	-8°	-5°	2°	-6°	-3°	-1°	-5°	-3°	2°	-4°	-8°	-7°	-8°	-6°	-3°	-8°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-1°	-3°	-6°	-5°
Snowcm	1.6	·	4.9	0.2	0.3	1.5	·	·	·	·	0.1	0.1	·	·	·	2	1.6	7.5	·	·	·	·	·	0.1	·	0.1	·	7.8
Precipmm	2.3	·	8.0	0.3	0.4	2.1	·	·	·	·	1.7	0.1	·	·	3.2	2.8	2.3	12.4	·	·	·	·	1.1	0.7	·	0.6	·	11.2
Windkm/h	3	10	6	5	7	2	4	2	3	2	5	2	8	12	10	8	8	6	8	2	6	3	13	11	5	7	10	4
Humidity%	89	50	85	72	61	74	53	44	69	75	81	84	88	69	89	73	71	86	67	61	61	67	74	55	59	71	74	90
0°C linem	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Mt Hutt, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Mt Hutt (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Mt Hutt El Niño rank & forecast

Mt Hutt ranks #273 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −5% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#273 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −5% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Mt Hutt averaged -5% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -26%, '15-16 -16%, '23-24 +28%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −26%'15-16 −17%'23-24 +28%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−5%

Measured to date

+145%

Season total

298 cm

Vs predicted

+150%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Key

What the tiers mean

% vs each resort's own 30-year average in strong El Niño winters.

Tier	Signal	Means
A — Prime terrain	≥ +8%	Historically much snowier than normal.
B — Favored	+3% to +8%	Modest upside vs normal.
C — ENSO-proof	about −3% to +3%	Near-normal snowfall — a hedge, not a jackpot or bust.
D — Late bloomer	−3% to −8%	Often lighter early — aim Feb–Mar.
E — Timing play	≤ −8%	Often lighter overall — aim late winter.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Mt Hutt, ERA5 season snowfall median was 129 cm (51 in), about 16% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

129cm

6 El Niño winters · 16% below median

All-season median

153cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

Phase	Seasons	Median	p25–p75	Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent	6	129cm	119cm – 174cm	2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña	4	144cm	120cm – 196cm	2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral	21	165cm	141cm – 210cm	2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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