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Obergurgl ski resort
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Europe

Obergurgl Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 19, 2026

Best months to book: March, April, February · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 19

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 10

2d ago

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Past 48 Hours

0cm

Past 10 Days

15cm

7-Day Forecast

6cm

Snow Depth

--

Updated: Oct 12, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 1,930m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 19

Obergurgl is projected to open November 19, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: March, April, February. Best weeks: 15 Mar–21 Mar, 29 Mar–4 Apr, 22 Mar–28 Mar.NovDecJan3Feb1Mar2AprOpens 19 NovCloses 27 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1March51cm avg · last season 35.5
  2. #2April55cm avg · last season 28.4
  3. #3February42cm avg · last season 35.4

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 15 Mar – 21 Mar · last season 41.3
  2. #2 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 38.1
  3. #3 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 39.5

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,080m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:02 PM

15cm
24h
6cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
15
Prev10d
0
Now13
0
W14
—
T15
—
F16
—
S17
5
S18
1
M19
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

13 Tue
2° / -8°
14 Wed
4° / -3°
15 Thu
5° / -2°
16 Fri
7° / -1°
17 Sat
2° / -3°
18 Sun
-2° / -4°
19 Mon
-0° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun26 Mon
Conditions☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️☁️☁️⛅⛅⛅🌤️☁️🌤️☀️⛅☁️🌧️🌧️☁️☁️🌧️
clearclearclearmostly clearclearcloudycloudysome cloudssome cloudssome cloudsmostly clearcloudymostly clearclearsome cloudscloudylight drizzlelight drizzlecloudycloudylight drizzle
Summit3,080 mModeled
Temp°C-4°2°-4°-1°4°-1°-1°5°-1°2°6°0°-2°2°-2°-3°-2°-3°-3°-1°-3°
Feels like°C-8°-1°-7°-4°1°-4°-4°2°-5°-2°3°-3°-5°-2°-5°-6°-5°-6°-5°-3°-5°
Snowcm···············0.20.610.4·1.1
Precipmm···············0.30.91.50.6·1.5
Windkm/h212312213222241132211
Mid-mountain2,505 mModeled
Temp°C0°6°0°3°8°3°3°9°3°5°10°4°2°5°2°0°2°0°1°3°1°
Feels like°C-4°3°-3°0°5°0°0°6°-1°2°7°1°-1°2°-1°-2°-1°-2°-1°1°-1°
Snowcm···············0.20.20.40.4·1.1
Precipmm···············0.30.91.50.6·1.5
Windkm/h212312213222241132211
Base1,930 mModeled
Temp°C4°9°4°7°11°6°7°12°7°9°14°8°6°9°6°4°5°4°5°7°5°
Feels like°C0°7°1°4°10°4°4°10°4°6°12°5°3°7°3°2°3°2°3°5°3°
Snowcm················0.2····
Precipmm···············0.30.91.50.6·1.5
Windkm/h212312213222241132211
Humidity%314250785974414149313841465558879385969095
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Obergurgl, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Obergurgl (alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The Alps region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Obergurgl El Niño rank & forecast

Obergurgl ranks #64 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +11% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#64 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +11% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Obergurgl averaged +11% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Obergurgl sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 -22%, '15-16 -14%, '23-24 +67%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −22%'15-16 −14%'23-24 +67%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Obergurgl, ERA5 season snowfall median was 373 cm (147 in), about 5% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

373cm

10 El Niño winters · 5% below median

All-season median

393cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10373cm345cm – 517cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12395cm365cm – 488cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8404cm367cm – 465cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Obergurgl

How much snow is Obergurgl getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 6 cm (2 in) of snow at Obergurgl over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Obergurgl?
The full 14-day forecast for Obergurgl — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Obergurgl?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.