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Ōhau ski resort
Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Oceania

Ōhau Snow Forecast

42

Good

→stable

Last Snowfall

Sep 23

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

2cm

Past 10 Days

24cm

7-Day Forecast

21cm

Snow Depth

55cm

Resort reported
🎿

Powder Days

20

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

4

2026 season

Updated: Sep 22, 9:04 PM•Weather at base: 1,425m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
42
Good
→stable

Strong season with 265cm total snowfall.

Current conditions at Ōhau are pleasant with clear skies and a temperature of -6°C. The snow depth stands at 55cm, which is about 80% of the 5-year average for this time of year. A forecast of 21cm of snow in the next week should help improve conditions further.

AI-generated summary
—

Depth

55cm depth — adequate for most conditions.

↓

Recent

In the past week, 24cm of new snow has fallen, with 2cm in the last 48 hours.

↓

Forecast

21cm in the next 7 days.

—

Historic

Season-to-date snowfall of 265cm is approximately 80% of the 5-year average of 332cm.

Data updated Tue, Sep 22, 09:04 PM UTC

Snow Summary

1,929m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 22, 2026 at 9:04 PM

24cm
24h
21cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
24
Prev10d
0
Now22
0
W23
—
T24
1
F25
0
S26
19
S27
—
M28
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

23 Wed
-2° / -11°
24 Thu
0° / -8°
25 Fri
2° / -4°
26 Sat
2° / -3°
27 Sun
-4° / -10°
28 Mon
-1° / -11°
29 Tue
4° / -6°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun5 Mon6 Tue
Conditions🌤️⛅☀️☀️🌤️⛅❄️🌤️❄️☁️☁️❄️❄️☀️☀️⛅⛅⛅🌤️☀️☁️
mostly clearsome cloudsclearclearmostly clearsome cloudslight snowmostly clearlight snowcloudycloudylight snowlight snowclearclearsome cloudssome cloudssome cloudsmostly clearclearcloudy
Summit1,929 mModeled
Temp°C-7°-3°-7°-5°0°-5°-2°1°-3°-1°2°-2°-7°-6°-7°-7°-2°-7°-2°3°-3°
Feels like°C-12°-7°-11°-9°-5°-9°-5°-2°-6°-5°-2°-6°-11°-9°-11°-11°-5°-11°-5°1°-7°
Snowcm··0.1··0.40.4·0.80.2·5.71.8·12.7······
Precipmm··0.1··0.60.60.11.20.30.28.22.5·18.1······
Windkm/h610481262759107574876536
Mid-mountain1,677 mModeled
Temp°C-6°-1°-5°-3°1°-3°0°3°-1°0°4°0°-6°-4°-6°-6°0°-5°0°5°-1°
Feels like°C-10°-5°-9°-7°-3°-7°-3°-1°-4°-3°0°-4°-9°-7°-10°-10°-4°-9°-4°3°-5°
Snowcm··0.1··0.40.4·0.80.2·5.51.8·12.7······
Precipmm··0.1··0.60.60.11.20.30.28.22.5·18.1······
Windkm/h610481262759107574876536
Base1,425 mModeled
Temp°C-4°0°-4°-1°3°-2°1°5°1°2°5°1°-4°-3°-4°-4°1°-4°1°7°0°
Feels like°C-8°-4°-7°-5°-1°-5°-1°1°-3°-2°2°-2°-8°-6°-8°-8°-2°-7°-2°5°-3°
Snowcm··0.1··0.40.3·0.80.2·4.21.8·12.7······
Precipmm··0.1··0.60.60.11.20.30.28.22.5·18.1······
Windkm/h610481262759107574876536
Humidity%755175636678836184847888837387866879776188
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Ōhau, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Ōhau (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

New Zealand region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Ōhau El Niño rank & forecast

Ōhau ranks #307 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier D, −7% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar: Often a bit lighter early (−3% to −8% vs normal). History favors waiting for peak-depth months (often Feb–Mar) rather than skipping the resort.

#307 of 488Tier D — Late bloomer — aim Feb–Mar

Strong-event signal: −7% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Ōhau averaged -7% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -44%, '15-16 -19%, '23-24 +44%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 −45%'15-16 −19%'23-24 +44%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

−7%

Measured to date

+54%

Season total

265 cm

Vs predicted

+61%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Ōhau, ERA5 season snowfall median was 173 cm (68 in), about 7% below this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

173cm

6 El Niño winters · 7% below median

All-season median

186cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6173cm149cm – 246cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4161cm145cm – 252cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21194cm164cm – 345cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Ōhau

How much snow is Ōhau getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 21 cm (8 in) of snow at Ōhau over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Ōhau?
The full 14-day forecast for Ōhau — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Ōhau?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.