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Pajarito Mountain ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

📷 Pajarito Mountain

North America

Pajarito Mountain

Closed for the season

Season ended April 5, 2026

Conditions data updated Fri, Aug 28, 10:04 AM UTC · informational only

Closed for the season — closed April 5

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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14-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Aug 28, 10:04 AM•Weather at base: 2926m

Overview

Pajarito Mountain is a ski resort in North America, United States, currently closed for the season (Season ended April 5, 2026). Conditions last updated 2026-08-28 10:04 UTC.

Resort Guide

Pajarito Mountain is a ski resort located near Los Alamos, New Mexico, offering over 300 acres of skiable terrain with a mix of beginner, intermediate, and advanced runs. The resort features a relaxed, community-oriented atmosphere, scenic views of the Jemez Mountains, and amenities including a base lodge, rental shop, and ski school. Pajarito is known for its uncrowded slopes, natural snow conditions, and a variety of events throughout the winter season.

Resort Info

Summit3182m
Base2926m
Vertical256m
Lifts6
Runs53
Skiable Area280 acres
Average snowfall125 inches / 318 cm
CountryUnited States
Visit Resort Website →Follow on Instagram →

Season dates

Season endedApril 5, 2026
Projected openingDecember 6, 2026

Future dates are operator estimates and may change.

Ski passes

Power Pass

Buy pass →

Access tiers change by season — confirm benefits on the pass operator's site.

Top Après Ski

Pajarito Mountain Cafe – Known for its relaxed, welcoming atmosphere, this slopeside spot is popular for après-ski drinks and casual fare, offering skiers a cozy place to unwind with local brews and mountain views after a day on the trails.

Snow Summary

3182mECMWF Model

Updated Aug 28, 2026 at 10:04 AM

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24h
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Past 10d
14-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now28
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S29
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S30
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M31
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T1
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W2
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T3
Past
Today
Forecast

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

Current Conditions

Reported Fri, Aug 28, 10:04 AM UTC

Depth by source

every reading we have
  • SNOTELBase 0cm

The headline depth uses the most trusted available source. We show every reading so you can judge for yourself.

Base

2926m

Temp

10.6°C

Wind

6.6km/h

Snow Depth

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14-Day Forecast

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Mid-Mountain

3054m

Temp

--°C

Wind

7km/h

Snow Depth

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14-Day Forecast

0cm

Summit

3182m

Temp

8.9°C

Wind

6.6km/h

Snow Depth

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14-Day Forecast

0cm

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Pajarito Mountain El Niño rank & forecast

Pajarito Mountain ranks #24 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#24 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Pajarito Mountain averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Pajarito Mountain sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +5%, '15-16 -12%, '23-24 +58%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +5%'15-16 −12%'23-24 +58%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

Live Conditions

Pajarito Mountain Webcam

All Webcams

Pajarito Mountain

1 webcam • Click to expand

Local Reports

0 reports
SnowSure™ Forecast Range

Daily Snowfall Forecast by Model

Black line = verified SnowSure™ blend (not a simple average). Weights update weekly from measured snowfall at SNOTEL stations and resort reports.

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Pajarito Mountain (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Hourly Forecast Detail

AM / PM / Night breakdown with wind and freezing level

NWP models refresh up to 4× daily · Last synced Aug 28, 10:04 AM

Hourly Forecast Detail
 
Today
22 / 90.3mm
Sat, Aug 29
21 / 103mm
Sun, Aug 30
18 / 94.4mm
Mon, Aug 31
18 / 82.9mm
Tue, Sep 1
19 / 80.8mm
Wed, Sep 2
21 / 10
PeriodAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight
Snow (cm)000000000000000000
Precip (mm)00.3001.31.702.71.70.41.21.300.30.5000
Temp (°C)152113161912141611121710131911142013
Wind (km/h)6675146594515631246135
Gusts (km/h)202723183826173115203924172923303924

14-Day Snow Forecast by Model

Summit elevation (3182m)

ECMWF
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GFS
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GEM
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JMA
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ICON
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Météo-Fr
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SnowSure™
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10-Day Forecast

Today

28

🌧️

22.1°

8.7°

10 km/h

Sat

29

🌧️

20.5°

10.1°

15 km/h

Sun

30

🌧️

18.2°

9°

10 km/h

Mon

31

🌧️

17.8°

8.2°

16 km/h

Tue

1

🌧️

19.4°

8.2°

13 km/h

Wed

2

☁️

20.8°

9.5°

13 km/h

Thu

3

☁️

21.4°

9.5°

12 km/h

Fri

4

🌧️

21.4°

11.9°

11 km/h

Sat

5

🌧️

21.2°

11.8°

14 km/h

Sun

6

🌧️

21.7°

10.9°

12 km/h

Summit elevation (3182m) • ECMWF model

Avalanche

No bulletin for this mountain

Avalanche.org (US avalanche centers)

This resort lies outside every forecast zone published by its national warning service, so no bulletin covers it.

Read the official bulletin ↗

SnowSure relays the official avalanche bulletin and does not issue avalanche forecasts. Read the full bulletin at the issuer’s link and make your own terrain decisions. Not a substitute for avalanche education, equipment, or local knowledge.

Season vs Historic

Updated Fri, Aug 28, 10:04 AM UTC

0cm

Season Total

This Season to Date

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vs 5-Year Avg

Off-season · 125cm full-season avg

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vs 30-Year Avg

Off-season · 119cm full-season avg

125cm

5-Yr Avg by Now

The last completed season totaled ~68.8 cm. That's 45% below the 5-year average (125 cm). Versus the 30-year baseline: 42% below the 30-year average (119 cm).

Pajarito Mountain Snow History

Average annual snowfall is 140cm with an average of 67 snowfall days per season. The table below shows monthly averages across 30 seasons of archive data (modeled snowpack at mid-elevation).

Average monthly snowfall history
MonthAvg SnowfallSnowfall DaysAvg Base DepthMax Base DepthBiggest Snowfall
November15cm7 days3cm10cm6.2cm
December22.4cm10 days8cm16cm6.7cm
January22.6cm10 days13cm22cm7cm
February22.5cm11 days14cm23cm6.9cm
March22.8cm11 days9cm19cm6.8cm
April16.5cm8 days2cm9cm6.4cm
May7.4cm4 days0cm5cm4.2cm

Source: SnowSure archive · Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis at mid-elevation. Depth is modeled, not resort-reported.

Season at a Glance

Next season(2026-27)

Opens Dec 6, 2026

Multi-season averages will appear once SnowSure has tracked more than one full season.

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Pajarito Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 155 cm (61 in), about 22% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

MJJ 2026 · ANOM +1.39°C

Analog season median

155 cm

10 El Niño winters · 22% above median

All-season median

127 cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10155 cm125 cm – 178 cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12118 cm90 cm – 135 cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8111 cm80 cm – 207 cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Best Months to Visit

February

Peak Season

January

Peak Season

March

Good

December

Good

Note: Based on typical ski season patterns for this region.

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Frequently asked questions about Pajarito Mountain

Where is Pajarito Mountain?
Pajarito Mountain is a ski resort in the United States.
How high is Pajarito Mountain?
Pajarito Mountain runs from a base elevation of 2,926 m (9,600 ft) to a summit of 3,182 m (10,440 ft), giving a vertical drop of 256 m (840 ft).
How big is Pajarito Mountain?
Pajarito Mountain has 280 acres (113 hectares) of skiable terrain, 53 marked runs and 6 lifts.
Which ski pass covers Pajarito Mountain?
Pajarito Mountain is on the Power Pass. Access terms such as blackout dates and day limits vary by pass tier, so check the pass operator for the current season.
When is ski season at Pajarito Mountain?
Pajarito Mountain typically operates from December to April. Exact opening and closing dates shift each year with snowfall — check the resort's current season dates before booking.
How much snow does Pajarito Mountain get in a typical season?
Pajarito Mountain averages 125 inches / 318 cm of snowfall in a typical season. Any individual season can run well above or below that.
How will El Niño affect Pajarito Mountain in winter 2026-27?
El Niño Signal Rank: #24 of 488 SnowSure resorts · Tier A · strong-event signal +17% vs its own 30-yr average. In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Pajarito Mountain averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Pajarito Mountain sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +5%, '15-16 -12%, '23-24 +58%. A pattern, not a promise.