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Pajarito Mountain ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Pajarito Mountain Snow Forecast

Projected to open December 6, 2026

Best months to book: January, February, March · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Dec 6 — closed April 5

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

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Past 24 Hours

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Past 48 Hours

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Past 10 Days

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7-Day Forecast

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Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 12, 11:02 PM•Weather at base: 2,743m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Dec 6

Pajarito Mountain is projected to open December 6, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: January, February, March. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 1 Mar–7 Mar, 25 Mar–28 Mar.Dec1Jan2Feb3MarAprOpens 6 DecCloses 5 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1January23cm avg
  2. #2February23cm avg · last season 14
  3. #3March23cm avg · last season 8.4

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 14
  2. #2 1 Mar – 7 Mar · last season 9.1
  3. #3 25 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

3,182m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Oct 12, 2026 at 11:02 PM

0cm
24h
1cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
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Prev10d
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Now12
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T13
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W14
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T15
1
F16
0
S17
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S18
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

12 Mon
11° / 3°
13 Tue
10° / 2°
14 Wed
7° / -3°
15 Thu
10° / -4°
16 Fri
7° / -2°
17 Sat
11° / -1°
18 Sun
9° / 1°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight19 Mon20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun
Conditions🌤️🌤️☀️⛅🌧️☀️🌤️🌧️☀️☀️☀️☀️☁️☁️☁️☀️🌤️☁️⛅🌧️☁️
mostly clearmostly clearclearsome cloudslight drizzleclearmostly clearlight drizzleclearclearclearclearcloudycloudycloudyclearmostly clearcloudysome cloudslight drizzlecloudy
Summit3,182 mModeled
Temp°C6°10°6°5°9°5°4°7°1°1°9°-1°0°6°0°3°10°1°4°8°3°
Feels like°C2°6°2°1°5°1°-1°1°-3°-3°5°-5°-6°1°-5°-2°6°-3°2°5°0°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··0.10.20.40.30.20.4···········1.00.2
Windkm/h13181412171118228911816131581110485
Mid-mountain2,963 mModeled
Temp°C7°12°7°6°11°6°5°8°3°3°10°1°1°8°1°4°11°3°6°10°5°
Feels like°C4°7°4°3°7°3°1°2°-1°-2°7°-3°-4°2°-4°0°8°-1°3°7°2°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··0.10.20.40.30.20.4···········1.00.2
Windkm/h13181412171118228911816131581110485
Base2,743 mModeled
Temp°C9°13°8°8°12°7°7°10°4°4°12°2°3°9°3°6°13°4°7°11°6°
Feels like°C6°9°5°4°8°5°2°4°1°0°8°-2°-3°4°-2°1°10°0°5°8°3°
Snowcm·····················
Precipmm··0.10.20.40.30.20.4···········1.00.2
Windkm/h13181412171118228911816131581110485
Humidity%855086825685834779503274472049264949805277
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Pajarito Mountain, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Pajarito Mountain (rockies), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Rockies & Southwest region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Pajarito Mountain El Niño rank & forecast

Pajarito Mountain ranks #24 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +17% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#24 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +17% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Pajarito Mountain averaged +17% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. The pattern has historically been a friend here. With a record-strength event forecast for winter 2026-27, Pajarito Mountain sits on the favorable side of the ledger. Analog winters: '97-98 +5%, '15-16 -12%, '23-24 +58%. A pattern, not a promise.

'97-98 +5%'15-16 −12%'23-24 +58%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Pajarito Mountain, ERA5 season snowfall median was 155 cm (61 in), about 22% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

155cm

10 El Niño winters · 22% above median

All-season median

127cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10155cm125cm – 178cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12118cm90cm – 135cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8111cm80cm – 207cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

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Frequently asked questions about Pajarito Mountain

How much snow is Pajarito Mountain getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 1 cm (0 in) of snow at Pajarito Mountain over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Pajarito Mountain?
The full 14-day forecast for Pajarito Mountain — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Pajarito Mountain?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.