El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Selwyn El Niño rank & forecast
Selwyn ranks #488 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −41% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
Strong-event signal: −41% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Selwyn averaged -41% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026. Analog winters: '97-98 -63%, '15-16 -45%, '23-24 -15%. A pattern, not a promise.
In-season scorecard
Predicted signal
−41%
Measured to date
−52%
Season total
60 cm
Vs predicted
−11%
Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.
