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Sugar Bowl ski resort
Mountain CollectiveView resorts
Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

North America

Sugar Bowl Snow Forecast

Projected to open November 20, 2026

Best months to book: February, March, January · last season + 30-yr record

Projected to open Nov 20

Weather data is still collected for informational purposes.

Last Snowfall

Oct 13

1d ago

Past 24 Hours

1cm

Past 48 Hours

1cm

Past 10 Days

1cm

7-Day Forecast

0cm

Snow Depth

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Updated: Oct 14, 12:08 AM•Weather at base: 2,098m
SnowSure™ Score2025-26 season
Projected to open Nov 20

Sugar Bowl is projected to open November 20, 2026. Here is when it is usually best to book.

Best months to book: February, March, January. Best weeks: 22 Feb–28 Feb, 22 Mar–28 Mar, 29 Mar–4 Apr.NovDec3Jan1Feb2MarAprOpens 20 NovCloses 12 Apr

Best months to book

  1. #1February128cm avg · last season 26.7
  2. #2March115cm avg · last season 15.4
  3. #3January123cm avg

Best weeks to book

  1. #1 22 Feb – 28 Feb · last season 26.7
  2. #2 22 Mar – 28 Mar · last season 20.7
  3. #3 29 Mar – 4 Apr · last season 32.9

Ranked on 25% last season's SnowSure score (2025-26) · 75% 30-year snowfall and base-depth record. The live score returns when the lifts turn.

Snow Summary

2,404m · mid-upper
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-FrUKMONBM

Updated Oct 14, 2026 at 12:08 AM

1cm
24h
0cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
1
Prev10d
0
Now13
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W14
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T15
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F16
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S17
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S18
0
M19
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

13 Tue
7° / -8°
14 Wed
13° / -4°
15 Thu
14° / -1°
16 Fri
15° / -3°
17 Sat
16° / -0°
18 Sun
14° / 1°
19 Mon
8° / -3°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight20 Tue21 Wed22 Thu23 Fri24 Sat25 Sun26 Mon
Conditions☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️☀️🌤️☀️🌤️☁️❄️
clearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearclearmostly clearclearmostly clearcloudylight snow
Summit2,555 mModeled
Temp°C-4°6°-4°1°12°0°3°13°2°3°14°3°5°15°3°6°13°3°6°5°1°
Feels like°C-8°2°-8°-3°9°-4°0°8°-2°-1°10°-1°1°10°-1°1°7°-1°0°-1°-4°
Snowcm····················0.4
Precipmm····················0.6
Windkm/h10106474716571147165142011202415
Mid-mountain2,327 mModeled
Temp°C-2°7°-2°2°14°1°5°15°3°4°16°4°7°17°4°7°14°4°7°7°3°
Feels like°C-7°3°-6°-1°10°-2°1°10°0°1°12°1°3°12°1°2°9°0°2°1°-2°
Snowcm····················0.4
Precipmm····················0.6
Windkm/h10106474716571147165142011202415
Base2,098 mModeled
Temp°C-1°9°-1°4°15°3°6°16°5°6°17°6°8°18°6°9°16°6°9°8°4°
Feels like°C-5°5°-5°1°12°0°3°11°2°2°14°3°4°14°3°4°10°2°3°2°-1°
Snowcm····················0.4
Precipmm····················0.6
Windkm/h10106474716571147165142011202415
Humidity%612663572160592258612359392150462254454556
0°C linem—————————————————————
Sunhours

Freeze line is the height where rain turns to snow. Plain: straight from the models. Marked ○: estimated from temperature. Sun is hours of actual sunshine, not day length; blank means we have no reading.

Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Sugar Bowl, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here.

Unlock with Pro

SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Sugar Bowl (sierra), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

California & Sierra Nevada region

14 Day map is in SnowSure ProUnlock with Pro

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27

Sugar Bowl El Niño rank & forecast

Sugar Bowl ranks #81 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +10% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

#81 of 488Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +10% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Sugar Bowl averaged +10% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline — one of the strongest positive El Niño signals we track. With NOAA forecasting a potentially record event for winter 2026-27, history says this is the winter to book Sugar Bowl with confidence. Individual analog winters: '97-98 +17%, '15-16 -12%, '23-24 +24%. A lean, not a law — but the lean is firmly up.

'97-98 +17%'15-16 −12%'23-24 +24%

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 10 past El Niño winters at Sugar Bowl, ERA5 season snowfall median was 649 cm (256 in), about 8% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JAS 2026 · ANOM +2.16°C

Analog season median

649cm

10 El Niño winters · 8% above median

All-season median

601cm

Across 30 ERA5 seasons (2026-27)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent10649cm569cm – 756cm2023, 2019, 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009
La Niña12639cm489cm – 755cm2022, 2021, 2020, 2017, 2011, 2010
ENSO-neutral8538cm471cm – 667cm2025, 2024, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2003

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Sugar Bowl

How much snow is Sugar Bowl getting this week?
No significant snow is forecast at Sugar Bowl over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Sugar Bowl?
The full 14-day forecast for Sugar Bowl — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Sugar Bowl?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.