El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026-27
Swain El Niño rank & forecast
Swain ranks #439 of 488 SnowSure resorts — Tier E, −19% in strong El Niño winters.
Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter: Strong El Niño winters ran clearly below this resort’s own baseline (≤ −8%). Still skiable — schedule late season; one storm cycle can beat the climatology.
#439 of 488Tier E — Deep timing play — aim late winter
Strong-event signal: −19% vs this resort's 30-yr avg
In the three strongest El Niño winters on record ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24), Swain averaged -19% versus its own 30-year snowfall baseline. Historically this is a timing play rather than a reason to stay home: aim for late winter (February–March) in winter 2026-27. Analog winters: '97-98 +11%, '15-16 -42%, '23-24 -26%. A pattern, not a promise.
'97-98 +11%'15-16 −42%'23-24 −26%
