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Valle Nevado ski resort
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Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain

South America

Valle Nevado Snow Forecast

77

Superb

↗improving

Last Snowfall

Sep 21

today

Past 24 Hours

0cm

Resort reported

Past 48 Hours

13cm

Past 10 Days

30cm

7-Day Forecast

31cm

Snow Depth

243cm

Open-Meteo model
🎿

Powder Days

43

2026 season

☀️

Bluebird Days

6

2026 season

Updated: Sep 21, 10:04 AM•Weather at base: 3,025m
SnowSure™ ScoreAI
77
Superb
↑improving

Exceptional season - 616cm already this season!

Valle Nevado is experiencing mainly clear conditions with a current temperature of -8°C. The snow depth is an estimated 243cm, and the resort has received 29cm of new snow over the past week, making for excellent skiing conditions.

AI-generated summary
✓

Depth

243cm depth — excellent coverage.

—

Recent

In the last 7 days, 29cm of snow has fallen, with 13cm in the past 48 hours.

✓

Forecast

31cm in the next 7 days.

✓

Historic

So far this season, snow depth is at 199% of the 5-year average for this time of year, which is 310cm.

Data updated Mon, Sep 21, 10:04 AM UTC

Snow Summary

3,670m
ECMWFGFSGEMJMAICONMétéo-Fr

Updated Sep 21, 2026 at 10:04 AM

30cm
24h
31cm
Past 10d
7-Day Forecast
30
Prev10d
2
Now21
0
T22
3
W23
9
T24
15
F25
2
S26
0
S27
Days 8–14 and every model are in Pro.Unlock with Pro
Past
Today
Forecast

Hourly Forecast

21 Mon
-0° / -11°
22 Tue
1° / -5°
23 Wed
-2° / -4°
24 Thu
-1° / -4°
25 Fri
-1° / -4°
26 Sat
2° / -5°
27 Sun
0° / -7°
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro
AMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNightAMPMNight28 Mon29 Tue30 Wed1 Thu2 Fri3 Sat4 Sun
Conditions⛅🌤️☁️🌤️🌤️⛅❄️❄️☁️☁️❄️☁️❄️❄️☁️☁️🌤️☀️🌤️🌤️☀️
some cloudsmostly clearcloudymostly clearmostly clearsome cloudslight snowlight snowcloudycloudylight snowcloudysnowlight snowcloudycloudymostly clearclearmostly clearmostly clearclear
Summit3,670 mModeled
Temp°C-7°-1°-6°-4°1°-3°-3°-2°-3°-3°-2°-4°-3°-1°-3°0°1°-2°-4°0°-5°
Feels like°C-12°-4°-10°-8°-1°-7°-7°-5°-7°-8°-7°-8°-8°-5°-7°-5°-1°-6°-8°-2°-9°
Snowcm······0.60.90.4·0.51.91.20.50.6······
Precipmm······0.91.30.5·0.72.71.70.70.8······
Windkm/h656646666111181078657768
Mid-mountain3,348 mModeled
Temp°C-5°1°-4°-2°3°0°-1°0°-1°-1°0°-2°-1°1°-1°2°3°0°-1°2°-3°
Feels like°C-9°-1°-8°-6°1°-4°-5°-3°-5°-6°-4°-6°-6°-2°-5°-3°1°-4°-6°0°-7°
Snowcm······0.60.90.4·0.51.91.20.50.6······
Precipmm······0.91.30.5·0.72.71.70.70.8······
Windkm/h656646666111181078657768
Base3,025 mModeled
Temp°C-3°3°-1°0°5°2°1°3°1°1°2°0°1°3°1°4°6°2°1°4°-1°
Feels like°C-7°1°-5°-3°4°-2°-3°-1°-2°-3°-2°-4°-4°0°-3°0°4°-2°-3°2°-5°
Snowcm······0.60.90.4·0.51.91.20.50.6······
Precipmm······0.91.30.5·0.72.71.70.70.8······
Windkm/h656646666111181078657768
Humidity%304860616263717170715872616461374851575463
0°C linem—————————————————————
Forecast Range · SnowSure Pro

Every model for Valle Nevado, side by side for 14 days

Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.

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SnowSure™ blend — verified model weighting

The black line is not a simple average. For Valle Nevado (andes), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).

  • 1.Horizon buckets: days 1–3, 4–7, and 8–14 each get separate weights — short-range skill differs from long-range.
  • 2.Regional calibration: weights come from verified error in this geography (Rockies, Alps, Japan, etc.), recalculated weekly.
  • 3.Ground truth only: we never grade a forecast against another model — only against measured snow.

Building verification history for this resort.

How we verify forecasts →

Snowfall Forecast Maps

Andes (Chile & Argentina) region

El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026

Valle Nevado El Niño rank & forecast

Valle Nevado ranks Under review SnowSure resorts — Tier A, +60% in strong El Niño winters.

Tier A — Prime El Niño terrain: Historically snowed much more than normal in strong El Niño winters (≥ +8% vs this resort’s own 30-year average).

Under reviewTier A — Prime El Niño terrain

Strong-event signal: +60% vs this resort's 30-yr avg

This resort carries no separate rank: its 30-year record is identical to la-parva, which is the ranked entry for this measurement. At ~31km resolution the reanalysis cannot resolve them as different mountains, so publishing both would be publishing one number twice.

'97-98 +102%'15-16 +29%'23-24 +50%

In-season scorecard

Predicted signal

+60%

Measured to date

+113%

Season total

616 cm

Vs predicted

+53%

Predicted signal vs measured season-to-date against this resort's own climatology.

Signal = average snowfall in the three strongest El Niño winters since 1996 ('97-98, '15-16, '23-24) vs this resort's own 30-year ERA5 baseline. n=3 — a lean, not a law. Updated monthly against measured snowfall Dec–Mar.

Full El Niño report →

ENSO seasonal analog

History · not a forecast

In 6 past El Niño winters at Valle Nevado, ERA5 season snowfall median was 507 cm (200 in), about 54% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.

Prevailing ONI

El Niño

JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C

Analog season median

507cm

6 El Niño winters · 54% above median

All-season median

330cm

Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)

PhaseSeasonsMedianp25–p75Recent analogs
El Niñocurrent6507cm458cm – 516cm2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997
La Niña4286cm235cm – 319cm2022, 2010, 1999, 1998
ENSO-neutral21290cm258cm – 360cm2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018

Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.

Local Reports

0 reports

How accurate is this forecast?

We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.

→

Frequently asked questions about Valle Nevado

How much snow is Valle Nevado getting this week?
The SnowSure™ blend forecasts about 31 cm (12 in) of snow at Valle Nevado over the next 7 days.
What is the 14-day snow forecast for Valle Nevado?
The full 14-day forecast for Valle Nevado — the SnowSure™ blend and every model we track, day by day — is part of SnowSure Pro. The first 7 days are free on this page.
How accurate are SnowSure forecasts for Valle Nevado?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell and publish the results — see our forecast verification pages for model-by-model accuracy, updated continuously.