Oceania
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Last Snowfall
Sep 21
Past 24 Hours
0cm
Reported by WhakapapaPast 48 Hours
5cm
Past 10 Days
5cm
7-Day Forecast
34cm
Snow Depth
67cm
Resort reported (website)Powder Days
9
2026 season
Bluebird Days
2
2026 season
Bluebird Day predicted: Sun
Good conditions - book with confidence.
Whakapapa currently has a snow depth of 67cm, which is slightly above the 5-year average for this time of year. The conditions are partly cloudy with a temperature of -7°C and light winds at 4 km/h. Looking ahead, the 14-day forecast suggests an average of 48cm of additional snowfall.
AI-generated summaryDepth
67cm depth — good coverage on most runs.
Recent
In the past week, there has been a total of 5cm of snowfall.
Forecast
34cm in the next 7 days.
Historic
This season's snowfall to date of 99cm is 101% of the 5-year average for this time of year, which is 98cm.
Data updated Sun, Sep 20, 05:04 PM UTC
Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.
Unlock with ProHistorical data from Open-Meteo archive • Forecast: SnowSure™ multi-model blend
21 Mon -0° / -7° | 22 Tue -0° / -6° | 23 Wed -5° / -11° | 24 Thu -3° / -11° | 25 Fri -1° / -9° | 26 Sat -1° / -6° | 27 Sun -0° / -9° | Days 8–14 and every model are in SnowSure Pro.Unlock with Pro | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | 28 Mon | 29 Tue | 30 Wed | 1 Thu | 2 Fri | 3 Sat | 4 Sun | |
| Conditions | ⛅ | ☁️ | ☁️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ☁️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | ☁️ | ☀️ | 🌤️ | ☀️ | ☀️ | ❄️ | ☁️ | ❄️ | 🌧️ | 🌧️ | ❄️ | ❄️ | 🌧️ | |||||||
| some clouds | cloudy | cloudy | light drizzle | light rain | cloudy | light snow | light snow | cloudy | clear | mostly clear | clear | clear | snow | cloudy | light snow | light drizzle | light rain | snow | snow | rain | ||||||||
| Summit2,300 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -3° | -1° | -5° | -2° | -2° | -5° | -7° | -6° | -8° | -7° | -4° | -9° | -5° | -3° | -7° | -4° | -2° | -5° | -2° | -6° | -4° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -7° | -5° | -10° | -6° | -7° | -9° | -12° | -11° | -13° | -12° | -8° | -14° | -9° | -7° | -10° | -8° | -5° | -8° | -7° | -11° | -9° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | · | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 19.7 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 1.3 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | · | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 28.2 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 5 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 15 | |||||||
| Mid-mountain1,965 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | -1° | 1° | -3° | 1° | 0° | -3° | -5° | -4° | -6° | -5° | -2° | -7° | -3° | -1° | -5° | -2° | 0° | -2° | 0° | -4° | -2° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -5° | -3° | -7° | -3° | -4° | -7° | -9° | -9° | -11° | -10° | -6° | -11° | -7° | -4° | -8° | -5° | -3° | -6° | -5° | -8° | -7° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | 0.1 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | · | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 1.3 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | · | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 28.2 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 5 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 15 | |||||||
| Base1,630 mModeled | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Temp°C | 1° | 3° | -1° | 3° | 2° | -1° | -2° | -1° | -4° | -3° | 0° | -5° | -1° | 1° | -2° | 0° | 3° | 0° | 2° | -2° | 0° | |||||||
| Feels like°C | -2° | 0° | -5° | -1° | -2° | -4° | -7° | -6° | -9° | -8° | -3° | -9° | -4° | -2° | -5° | -3° | 0° | -3° | -2° | -6° | -4° | |||||||
| Snowcm | · | · | · | · | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | · | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | 2.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1 | |||||||
| Precipmm | · | · | · | 1.3 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | · | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 3.9 | 28.2 | |||||||
| Windkm/h | 5 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 10 | 15 | |||||||
| Humidity% | 74 | 86 | 87 | 100 | 96 | 100 | 90 | 77 | 95 | 61 | 68 | 90 | 81 | 86 | 98 | 87 | 73 | 99 | 98 | 96 | 95 | |||||||
| 0°C linem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
Every model for Whakapapa, side by side for 14 days
Where the models agree, where they split, and which one has been most accurate here. Free for 14 days, then yearly.
Unlock with ProThe black line is not a simple average. For Whakapapa (southern alps), we combine seven global weather models using weights learned from daily forecast verification — comparing each model's prediction to measured snowfall (SNOTEL, resort reports, ERA5).
Building verification history for this resort.
How we verify forecasts →New Zealand region
El Niño Outlook · Winter 2026
Whakapapa is under review in SnowSure's El Niño dataset — we will not publish a rank against a discontinuous historical series.
This station is under review and carries no rank: its 30-year ERA5 baseline falls below the 80cm floor our methodology commits to, so percentage swings computed on it are unstable by construction. We expect it to benefit from El Niño; our method cannot size that reliably.
In 6 past El Niño winters at Whakapapa, ERA5 season snowfall median was 43 cm (17 in), about 3% above this resort’s long-term median. This is a historical analog from reanalysis — not a prediction of this winter’s storm track.
Prevailing ONI
El Niño
JJA 2026 · ANOM +1.8°C
Analog season median
43cm
6 El Niño winters · 3% above median
All-season median
42cm
Across 31 ERA5 seasons (2026)
| Phase | Seasons | Median | p25–p75 | Recent analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Niñocurrent | 6 | 43cm | 30cm – 81cm | 2026, 2023, 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997 |
| La Niña | 4 | 18cm | 7cm – 51cm | 2022, 2010, 1999, 1998 |
| ENSO-neutral | 21 | 42cm | 23cm – 127cm | 2025, 2024, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 |
Season snowfall from Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis (~9 km). ENSO phase from NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. Relative phase differences are more trustworthy than absolute cm totals. Source: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index + Open-Meteo ERA5 via SnowSure season archive.
How accurate is this forecast?
We verify every forecast against what actually fell — see the model-by-model results.
